Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 404 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 16 2025 ...Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Friday, the Cascades/Northern Intermountain Region, and Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday... ...A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Saturday... ...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday and over the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast on Saturday... A front extending from the Central Plains to the Southern Plains will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes to the Central Gulf Coast by Sunday. On Friday, the storm will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is an additional threat of F2- EF5 tornadoes over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. Furthermore, there is also an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts 65 knots or greater and hail two inches or greater over the region. On Saturday, as the front moves eastward, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys into parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast from Saturday through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is an additional threat of F2- EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts 65 knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. Furthermore, heavy rain will occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Appalachians from Saturday through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, heavy snow will develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Rain will also fall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the West Coast and inland to the Rockies before dissipating by Saturday morning. On Friday, the system will produce coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and California. Heavy snow will develop over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Moreover, upper-level energy over the Central/Southern Rockies will move northeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday. The energy will also produce light snow over parts of the Great Basin, Northern Intermountain Region, Southwest, and the Rockies on Friday. In addition, more upper-level energy will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. The energy will produce heavy snow over the Cascades and Northern Intermountain Region, accompanied by coastal rain on Saturday and Sunday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php