Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 00Z Sat Mar 15 2025 - 00Z Mon Mar 17 2025 ...Deep cyclone will bring widespread high winds across the Plains, critical to extreme fire danger across central/southern Plains, and possibly blizzard conditions across eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Saturday... ...Heavy rain and flash flooding later on Saturday across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Deep South... ...Unsettled weather across the Pacific Northwest will culminate with an atmospheric river event reaching southwestern Oregon/far northern California Saturday night into Sunday... ...Severe thunderstorms expected to impact the Midwest to much of the Mississippi Valley tonight, across the Deep South later on Saturday, and possibly the East Coast by Sunday... A rapidly intensifying cyclone that has already brought record high wind gusts exceeding 80 mph across the south-central Plains will continue to track northeastward, reaching the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. This deep storm will continue to herald a wide variety of hazardous weather across the eastern half of the country through the weekend. The immediate concerns will be critical to extreme fire danger across central to southern Plains due to the high winds through tonight behind the cyclone. Meanwhile, an outbreak of thunderstorms reaching severe levels is expected across the Midwest tonight with the passage of an occluded front. By Saturday, a vigorous wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the trailing front over Arkansas. The influx of moisture and instability to be lifted by an energetic jet stream will result in a heavy rain event on Saturday across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Deep South where up to a moderate risk of flash flooding can be expected especially by the evening hours. Also on Saturday, cold air wrapping around the deep cyclone will likely bring a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow across eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. Blustery northwesterly winds could lead to blizzard conditions in portions of these areas at the height of the storm on Saturday before the cyclone starting to move into Canada Saturday night. By Saturday night into Sunday, the wave of low pressure is forecast to continue its rapidly-deepening trend as it tracks toward the East Coast. A potent cold front trailing south of the low center will sweep across the entire eastern U.S. Warm and moist air ahead of the front will surge up the East Coast on Saturday, which will be followed by the arrival of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms that could reach severe levels along with increasingly gusty winds for much of the East Coast, especially from the Mid-Atlantic southward. The western U.S. will have no lack of active weather through this weekend as a parade of fronts and cyclones targets the Pacific Northwest. While heavy snow associated with the first system is expected to taper off tonight across the Sierra Nevada, active and unsettled weather across the Pacific Northwest through tonight into Saturday will culminate with an atmospheric river event reaching southwestern Oregon and far northern California Saturday night into Sunday. An additional foot of snow can be expected for the Sierra Nevada while a few feet of new snow is forecast for the Cascades through the weekend. For the lower elevation of southwestern Oregon into northwestern California, locally heavy rain pushing onshore by the atmospheric river could exceed 5 inches at some locations, which would lead to concerns of flash flooding, mudslides and river runoffs. The lower elevation of the Desert Southwest is perhaps the only dry location this weekend but the first Pacific system is forecast to bring up to a foot of new snow for the higher elevation of Arizona tonight into Saturday. Light to moderate snowfall is also forecast for the mountains across the Great Basin. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php