Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 346 AM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 19 2025 - 12Z Fri Mar 21 2025 ...Heavy snow/blizzard conditions over Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday; light to moderate snow over the Cascades on Thursday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over the parts of the Southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday... On Wednesday, a deep area of low pressure over the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley will move northeastward to Michigan and into Southeastern Canada by Thursday. A Secondary low will develop over Southern New England by Friday. The deep area of low pressure will spread heavy snow across the Central Plains and then pivot through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes through Thursday morning. Snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will likely combine with wind gusts over 50 mph to produce blizzard conditions. The greatest risk for blizzard conditions will be from northern Kansas through southern Minnesota. Furthermore, the storm will produce heavy snow accumulations from northern Kansas through the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Although uncertainty remains in the placement of the heaviest snow, the chance for greater than 6 inches of snow is increasingly likely over a portion of the Central Plains through the Midwest and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Moreover, the combination of heavy falling snow and strong winds will create snow-covered roads and near-zero visibility at times. This will make travel dangerous to nearly impossible. Avoid travel if possible, and have a winter survival kit with you if you must travel. The heavy snow and blizzard threat ends on Thursday as light snow develops over parts of Michigan and the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast. Further, an area of upslope flow will produce light snow over parts of the Central Appalachians. In addition, on Wednesday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop from parts of the Midwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley, which has the most dangerous conditions in the Midwest. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Upper Great Lakes through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and multiple tornadoes. There is an added threat of EF 2 to EF 5 tornadoes over the area. The severe thunderstorm threat ends by Thursday. On Thursday, rain will develop over parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Tennessee Valley. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Rain will also develop over parts of the Southeast. Furthermore, light snow and rain will linger over parts of the Northeast by Friday morning. Moreover, strong gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels prompted the SPC to issue a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern High Plains on Wednesday and over northeastern New Mexico on Thursday. Meanwhile, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California will create coastal rain and higher-elevation snow by late afternoon on Wednesday that will persist into Thursday. Snow will expand into the Northern Intermountain Region overnight Wednesday and continue into Thursday. The associated upper-level energy will create light to moderate snow over the Cascades on Thursday. Moreover, light snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains and Central Rockies Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php