Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 312 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Mar 23 2025 - 00Z Tue Mar 25 2025 ...Snow develops across the upper Midwest to the upper Great Lakes on Sunday as severe weather and heavy rain threat emerge across the Southeast... ...More wet weather expected for the Pacific Northwest and mountain snow across the northern Rockies this weekend... ...Fire weather threat continues this weekend across large portions of the Central to Southern Plains... An upper-level wave over the Rockies dropping southeastward over the Plains today will help to strengthen/organize a low pressure/frontal system in the lee of the Rockies, leading to increasing moist southerly flow and precipitation chances across the central/eastern U.S. the next couple of days. The first round of storms will begin Saturday evening ahead of the initial wave of moisture/warm front lifting northward over the central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. Showers and storms overnight may be severe, with a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) centered over southwestern Missouri for the threat of some large hail. Then, on Sunday, more widespread storms are expected ahead of a cold front sweeping southeastward across the ArkLaTex, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley. Another Slight Risk of severe weather is in effect as increasing shear and sufficient CAPE will lead to some more potent thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. In addition, increasing storm coverage and the tendency for repetitive rounds of storms ahead of the slowing cold front may lead to some locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. Showers and storms will continue ahead of the front on Monday as it pushes southeastward towards the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Additional rounds of locally heavy rainfall as well as the risk of isolated flash flooding will be most likely along the central Gulf Coast. To the north, a wintry mix of freezing rain and moderate snow is expected along and to the north of the low track across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Winter Weather Advisories are in place from northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into the UP of Michigan for snowfall of 3-6" as well as a glaze to a 0.1" of ice through Sunday. Precipitation chances will spread into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast late Sunday and into Monday as the system moves eastward, with a wintry mix likely for interior locations and higher elevations of the Appalachians and rainfall along the East Coast. Little to no snow accumulations are expected except perhaps for a couple inches in the Adirondacks and higher elevations of New England. Precipitation chances will continue for the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies as an active storm pattern remains in place. Some lingering lower elevation rains/higher elevation snows are expected through Saturday evening as one system departs the region. Precipitation will begin to quickly pick back up again by early Sunday as another system approaches from the Pacific. Moist flow along the Olympics and northern Cascades in Washington will lead to locally heavy rainfall and some isolated instances of flooding, with much lighter rain amounts expected elsewhere. Higher elevations of the northern Cascades and northern Rockies will see another round of heavy snowfall with totals over a foot possible. A combination of very dry, blustery conditions as well as above average temperatures will continue to lead to fire weather conditions over portions of the Plains this weekend. The SPC has highlighted a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) for eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas through the rest of Saturday, with an Elevated Risk (level 1/3) elsewhere across much of the central/southern Plains. An Elevated Risk will continue into Sunday. Much of the country will see warming, above average conditions over the next couple of days as an upper-level ridge begins to build over the central/western U.S. in a more highly amplified pattern. Highs from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Basin, central Plains, Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic will rise from the 50s and 60s on Sunday into the 60s and 70s on Monday. Even warmer temperatures are expected along the southern tier of the country, with 70s in the Southeast, 70s and 80s in the southern Plains, and 80s and 90s into the Desert Southwest. Areas from the Great Lakes to New England will remain cooler and below average as the storm system moves through, with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php