Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 334 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Mar 30 2025 - 00Z Tue Apr 01 2025 ...There's a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall across parts of the central Gulf Coast... ...Severe weather and heavy rainfall spread from Central/Southern Plains tonight to Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Sunday then East Coast on Monday; Freezing rain expected to bring Moderate to Major impacts to portions of the Upper Midwest to interior Northeast... ...Unsettled weather arrives over the West Coast on Sunday... ...Critical Fire Weather conditions likely for much of the Southern High Plains into next week; much above average temperatures across the South and East through Monday... Moist/unstable southerly flow from the Gulf interacting with a convergence zone may produce impactful rainfall along the central Gulf Coast tonight. Parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi are forecast to pick up several inches of rain, which could lead to widespread Flash Flooding. Thus, a Moderate (at least 40%) Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for these areas this evening. Meanwhile, a sprawling and dynamic mid-latitude cyclone will bring multiple weather hazards to the Central and Eastern U.S. over the next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys tonight. There's a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) over parts of northern/central Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, western/central Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and north-central Texas. Very large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible. There's increasing potential for a substantial severe weather outbreak to unfold across the Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center issued a broad Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 3/5) from the ArkLaTex region to southern Michigan. Very large hail, damaging winds and strong tornadoes are expected. Snow showers and freezing rain will continue to proliferate from the Northern Plains to the Northeast through Sunday night. Freezing rain will likely be the most impactful weather type within the cold sector, with accumulating ice expected to produce considerable disruptions to daily life in these areas. Avoid travel if possible in parts of northeastern Wisconsin and portions of central New England through Sunday night. Storms will continue to develop along the attendant cold front, associated with the low pressure system moving through the Mississippi Valley, and spread into the Gulf/East Coasts on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center issued a very broad Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to southern Upstate New York. Some heavy rain is possible within convective systems propagating through portions of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys Sunday night into Monday. Elsewhere, very dry, warm and windy conditions will promote Critical Fire Weather in parts of the Southern High Plains over the next few days. Temperatures will remain well above average for the Eastern half of the country until Tuesday, when cooler air behind the aforementioned cold front pushes through. Anomalously mild minimum temperatures may tie or break existing records over portions of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast tonight and Sunday night. A deep low pressure system will bring heavy snow to the Sierra Nevada, while spreading low elevation rain, high winds and cooler temperatures throughout the broader Western U.S. beginning on Sunday. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php