Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Mar 31 2025 - 00Z Wed Apr 02 2025 ...Severe weather and heavy rainfall spread from the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on tonight to the East Coast Monday... ...Ice storm continues across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Upstate New York/northern New England tonight... ...Unsettled weather arrives over the West Coast... ...Critical Fire Weather conditions likely for much of the Southern High Plains into next week; much above average temperatures across the South and East through Monday... An energetic upper-level trough and accompanying surface low pressure/frontal system moving through the central to eastern U.S. will continue to bring the threat of severe weather, flash flooding, and an ice storm along the northern tier the next couple of days. Another day of moist return flow ahead of a trailing cold front progressing eastward through the broader Mississippi Valley as a pair of upper-level shortwaves pass overhead will encourage the development of numerous, intense thunderstorms through tonight. This has prompted an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) from the Storm Prediction Center over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys west through the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and into the ArkLaTex. Very large hail, significant damaging winds (especially into the evening hours), and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, can all be expected. In addition, more than sufficient moisture for heavy downpours as well as increasing rainfall coverage as storms grow upscale into an organized line into the evening hours will bring the risk of some scattered instances of flash flooding. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place to cover this threat across portions of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. The system will continue eastward Monday with another round of storms expected ahead of the cold front from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the Southeast to the central Gulf Coast. Another Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place for the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Some isolated instances of flash flooding will also be possible, particularly for northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic as well as for the Deep South/central Gulf Coast. To the north, a second round of wintry precipitation will continue an ongoing ice storm across portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Upstate New York/northern New England as warmer air aloft overrides a significantly colder airmass just north of a wavy quasi-stationary frontal boundary. Significant, potentially destructive ice accumulations from freezing rain upwards of 0.25-0.5", locally even higher, will be possible through this evening, which is on top of an initial round of freezing rain on Saturday. These totals are most likely from northern Wisconsin eastward through the UP and northern LP of Michigan as well as for far Upstate New York and northern New England. Tree damage and power outages will remain possible. A band of moderate to locally heavy snowfall will also continue just to the north of the freezing rain from far northern Wisconsin into the UP of Michigan along Lake Superior, as well as in northern Maine. The heaviest additional snowfall totals are most likely along Lake Superior in the UP of Michigan, where another 4-6", locally higher, will be possible. The wintry precipitation should wind down tonight, lingering longest across northern Maine into early Monday. A lower elevation rain/snow mix and higher elevation snow will begin to wind down tonight for the Northern/Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains as the upper-level trough passes overhead and in the presence of upslope flow as a frontal boundary lingers through the region. To the west, more significant precipitation chances will start to ramp up into Monday for the West Coast as a Pacific system approaches the region. Showers and even some thunderstorms are expected along the coast from central California northward through the Pacific Northwest, with the heaviest rainfall focused along the coastal ranges near the California/Oregon border. Additionally, heavy snowfall is expected for higher mountain elevations, particularly for the northern California Ranges and Sierra Nevada as well as the southern Cascades. Snow totals of 1-2' will be possible, with higher totals as much as 4-5' for the Sierra. Strong winds gusting up to 45-55 mph are also expected particularly for portions of southern Oregon/northern California as well as southward through the Sierra Nevada vicinity. Moisture will flow inland with the system as it pushes into the Rockies Monday, bringing another round of lower elevation rain/snow and higher elevation snow to the Northern/Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Some areas of snow may begin to push further east into the Northern Plains by early Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) across much of central/southern New Mexico into far west Texas as conditions remain warm, very dry, and breezy. An Elevated threat will continue into Monday, with another Critical Risk expected Tuesday. Some intense downpours can be expected with thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula tonight, with an isolated threat for flash flooding. Much above average early Spring temperatures will continue for portions of the eastern and southern U.S. ahead of the noted Central U.S. storm system the next couple of days. Progression of the cold front will bring much colder temperatures in the 40s and 50s to much of the Midwest/Ohio Valley beginning Monday, while areas ahead of the front will remain warmer. Below average, chilly temperatures will remain in place along the northern tier with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s from the Northern Plains east into the Upper Great Lakes and New England. A warm front lifting northward will bring much warmer temperatures to New England on Monday as highs jump into the 40s, 50s, and even some 60s. Highs will generally be closer to average across the Pacific Northwest into the Interior West with 50s and some 60s expected, as well as through the Desert Southwest with highs in the 70s and 80s. Below average temperatures are expected for California as the Pacific System impacts the region, with highs mainly in the 50s to low 60s. Kebede/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php