Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 408 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 17 2025 - 12Z Sat Apr 19 2025 ...Spring snowstorm to produce heavy snow and strong winds across the Rockies... ...Much colder weather to sink south across the Northern/Central Rockies, Great Basin and Northern/Central High Plains, while above average temperature push east into the Mississippi & Ohio Valleys... ...Critical to Extreme Fire Weather threat for the Central to Southern High Plains... ...Severe Weather and Heavy Rain threaten parts of the Central U.S. late this week... An amplifying upper-level pattern will be the driving force for much of the impactful weather that occurs across the lower 48 over the next few days. A potent cold front pushing south through the West and Central U.S. will continue to produce heavy snow and strong winds over portions of the Rockies. Heavy snow focuses over southern-central Montana and much of Wyoming today before shifting south into the Colorado Rockies on Friday. Additional accumulations of 1-2 feet (isolated 3 feet) are probable over Wyoming while areas in Colorado could pickup anywhere between 6-12 inches. Frigid air drives southward into the Rockies, Great Basin and High Plains behind the cold front. High temperatures are likely to be 15-30 degrees below average in many of the aforementioned areas through Friday. A developing cut-off low over the Four Corners is expected to generate enough winds and dry air advection at the surface to support an Extremely Critical Risk (level 3/3) of Fire Weather over portions of the Southwest and New Mexico for today. A broader Critical Risk area stretches farther into the Central/Southern High Plains. The Extreme Risk diminishes on Friday once the cold front and associated precipitation arrive. The eastern flank of this cold front should become the focus for scattered thunderstorm activity over parts of the Central U.S. beginning today. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms extending from portions of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa for today. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks associated with this threat, according to SPC. A broader Slight Risk area stretches from north-central Texas into Michigan on Friday, with large hail and isolated severe gusts being the main threats. Some thunderstorms may produce rain rates high enough to create Flash Flooding over parts of the Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (at least 15% chance) is in effect for portions of northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern/central Missouri on Friday. A Central to Eastern U.S. ridge will promote warm southerly flow into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys over the next couple of days, followed by the East Coast this weekend. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php