Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Apr 21 2025 - 00Z Wed Apr 23 2025 ...An intensifying low pressure system will bring gusty winds and a swath of heavy rain up across Missouri and eastern Iowa, severe thunderstorms from Arkansas to Missouri through tonight, then wet snow across the upper Great Lakes early Monday morning... ...Scattered mountain snow expected for the northern Rockies on Monday, along with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms across the northern Plains into Tuesday... A low pressure system is forecast to intensify and track relatively quickly northeastward across the central Plains this evening and into the upper Midwest by Monday morning. A swath of heavy rain accompanied with gusty winds and a slight chance of flash flooding is expected to develop ahead of the system from Arkansas this afternoon into Missouri, and eastern Iowa tonight, along with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from northern Arkansas into much of Missouri through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, along with the possibility of tornadoes. The low pressure system will expand in size as it moves across the Great Lakes on Monday before moving away into Canada going into Tuesday. Colder air wrapping around the system is enough to bring a period of wet snow across the upper Great Lakes near the west end of Lake Superior early on Monday where a few inches of accumulation is possible. The low will then bring gusty winds and scattered showers through the central Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will sweep across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday with thunderstorms gradually losing intensity. The front will then bring scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms Monday night through the Northeast with only a slight chance of showers on Tuesday. Across the Deep South, the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday as the front gradually stalls across the region. Meanwhile, the next upper trough and associated front will bring a round of scattered mountain snow for the northern Rockies on Monday. The moisture is forecast to spread farther to the east across the northern Plains where scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms can be expected to advance from west to east into Tuesday. A low pressure system is expected to gradually develop over the northern Plains on Tuesday but it appears that limited amounts of moisture will only trigger widely scattered showers and storms over the upper Midwest ahead of a warm front and a triple-point low pressure wave. Much of the the country will enter a relatively quiet weather pattern with the departure of the low pressure system over the Great Lakes. The eastern U.S. and the Southwest will remain rather warm for April while a warming trend is forecast for the northern Plains by Monday. Moisture from the Gulf will begin to return to allow increasing chance of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms across the western to central Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php