Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 317 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 22 2025 - 12Z Thu Apr 24 2025 ...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday and Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and the Southern Plains on Wednesday... On Tuesday, a front extending from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains/Central Rockies will move eastward to the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the Central Plains/Central Rockies by Tuesday evening and dissipate overnight Tuesday. Also, on Tuesday, a second front moving southward out of Central Canada will move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi Valley and then westward into the Central Plains by Thursday morning. On Tuesday, moisture streams northward over the Central/Southern Plains, intersecting the boundary over the Central Plains as a dryline develops over the Southern High Plains. Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the Southern High Plains/Central Plains along and ahead of the front and east of the dryline. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains/Central Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High Plains through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. A third front extending from the Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic and then southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains will move eastward off the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic Coast by overnight Tuesday. The western end of the boundary will linger across the Southeast through Thursday morning. On Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast. In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and a second area over the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Central Gulf Coast through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. On Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains westward into parts of the Great Basin. Moisture will continue to stream northward over the Plains as showers and severe thunderstorms will develop east of the dryline over the Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop on Wednesday along and near the old boundary extending from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast/Southern Plains. Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will trigger rain and highest-elevation snow over parts of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php