Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 23 2025 - 12Z Fri Apr 25 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle /Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains on Wednesday... On Wednesday, a front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains/Central Rockies will move eastward to the Northeast, westward to the Middle Mississippi Valley, and southwestward into the Southern Plains by Friday morning. In addition, moisture streams northward over the Central/Southern Plains, intersecting the boundary over the Central Plains as a dryline develops over the Southern High Plains. Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the Southern High Plains east of the dryline. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern/Central High Plains through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and hail will be the primary threat over parts of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, into the Great Lakes. Furthermore, a second front over the southern Mid-Atlantic westward to the Lower Mississippi Valley will linger over the area for the next two days. The two boundaries will produce showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Central/Southern Plains Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. On Thursday, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop eastward of the dryline over the Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains from Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and an isolated threat of tornadoes. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the southeastern boundary from the southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle /Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle /Lower Mississippi Valley from Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Furthermore, rain and showers/thunderstorms will develop from the Northeast to the Ohio as the front moves eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies into the North/Central Plains will trigger rain and highest-elevation snow over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region, eastern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies on Wednesday. The energy moves eastward on Thursday, producing rain over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. Scattered rain and highest elevations now will develop over parts of the Northern Rockies on Thursday. Lastly, upper-level dynamics will trigger light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on Thursday evening into Friday morning. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php