Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 27 2025 - 12Z Tue Apr 29 2025 ...Wet snow along the Sierra Nevada, parts of the Great Basin today, and then the northern Rockies Sunday night into Monday... ...Heavy rainfall and snowmelt expected to raise concern of flooding for portions of the northern High Plains of Montana today... ...Outbreak of severe weather, including strong tornadoes, expected for portions of the Midwest/Plains Monday... ...Much below average temperatures across California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest with much above average temperatures spreading from the Plains into the Midwest/Southeast... Our ongoing active Spring weather pattern across the U.S. will bring increasingly active weather into the mid-section of the country as we head into the new week. First of all, a low pressure system is slowing down its forward motion across New England this morning. Colder air wrapping around the slowly-departing system could change the rain to wet snow for the higher elevation in the interior sections of northern New England today. All precipitation should gradually taper off tonight as the system moves farther away into the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, a more compact and energetic upper-level low moving onshore into California this morning will kick the entire system inland, bringing additional snowfall for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada followed by mixed rain/snow across the Great Basin today. By Monday, the upper low will head toward the northern Rockies and begin to interact with a cold front dipping south from Canada into Montana. This interaction will set off a period of snow mainly across southern Montana into northern Wyoming from Sunday night into Monday where as much as 6-12" of accumulations can be expected. Accumulating snowfall should be limited to higher elevations but heavy rain is also expected to fall over areas of slightly lower elevations in close proximity, leading to concern of snowmelt and flooding for portions of the northern High Plains of Montana. From Monday into Tuesday morning, an elongated low pressure system is forecast to track across the northern Plains. This system will result in a blossoming area of rain and embedded thunderstorms across the region this evening, spreading into the upper Midwest on Monday. A cold northerly wind will become strong and gusty from Montana to North Dakota while a warm and gusty southerly wind strengthens through much of the southern and central Plains to the south of the system. The threat of severe thunderstorms will be much increased tonight across the northern-central Plains ahead of the intensifying system and a trailing cold front. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a slight risk of severe thunderstorms to extend from northern Texas through the central Plains, increasing to a moderate risk across the upper Mississippi Valley where an outbreak of severe weather, including strong tornadoes, is expected. A broader Enhanced Risk extends into the Mid-Missouri Valley where very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will also be possible on Monday and Monday night. By Tuesday morning, the low pressure system should begin to exit the upper Great Lakes. Colder air surging south from Canada could change the rain to wet snow across portions of the upper Great Lakes along with gusty winds. Elsewhere, very dry conditions, warm temperatures, and strong, gusty winds have prompted concern of critical to extreme fire weather danger from New Mexico to the southeast corner of Arizona and far western Texas. The deep upper-level trough over the western U.S. as well as a corresponding upper-level ridge intensifying over the central/eastern U.S. is leading to an increasing dichotomy in well above average and below average temperatures for the remainder of this weekend and into next week. Well above average temperatures over the Plains today will expand eastward across the Midwest and Southeast on Monday, with the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic also seeing above average highs. California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest will see another day of well below average highs today before conditions moderate closer to average on Monday. Areas of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin will remain at or above average. Kong/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php