Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 301 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Apr 29 2025 - 00Z Thu May 01 2025 ...Outbreak of severe weather, including strong tornadoes, expected for portions of the Midwest/Plains into this evening, followed by strong to severe thunderstorms from the interior Northeast to the southern Plains on Tuesday... ...Potentially significant flash flooding increasing across portions of the southern Plains beginning Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday... ...Above normal warmth spreads eastward from the central U.S. to the eastern U.S. heading into midweek... The center of an intensifying low pressure system continues to track eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon, bringing the threat of severe weather and isolated flash flooding to much of the region. On the warm side of the system, building instability combined with vigorous dynamics will likely lead to an outbreak of severe thunderstorms heading into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe weather over portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa where strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are expected. Severe weather is also possible farther south as well, and an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) and a Slight Risk (level 2/5) surrounds the Moderate Risk and extends from the Upper Midwest to portions of the southern Plains ahead of a trailing cold front. Locally heavy rainfall may also lead to some isolated instances of flash flooding, especially where storms repeatedly train over the same areas. The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall over the southern Plains heading into Tuesday. Several rounds of storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the stalling boundary, bringing episodes of heavy rain. Given the already saturated grounds from recent heavy rainfall, and the potential for an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts, the Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall for portions of southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, central Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. Numerous instances of flash flooding are possible by later on Tuesday some of which could potentially be significant. Another round of severe weather is also on the table on Tuesday, this time stretching from the interior Northeast to the southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns, along with an isolated tornado or two. On Wednesday, the focus for significant heavy rain and flash flooding remains in place for portions of the southern Plains and expands into the western Ozarks of Arkansas. Another Moderate Risk (level 3/4) highlights the concern for numerous instances of flash flooding due to repeated training of strong, moisture-laden thunderstorms. A strong ridge of high pressure building over much of the central/eastern U.S. will bring well above average warmth to much of the region through midweek. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common, including for more northern locations like the Midwest and Northeast ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will begin to return back closer to average over the West into Tuesday, with highs generally ranging in the 60s and 70s, with 80s into the Desert Southwest. Overall near average temperatures continue for the West on Wednesday with above normal temperatures continuing for much of the East. The exceptions to the warmer than normal conditions will be in the wake of the cold front across portions of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php