Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Apr 30 2025 - 00Z Fri May 02 2025 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected from the interior Northeast, to the Ohio Valley, to the southern Plains through this evening... ...Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms possible across portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas on Wednesday... ...Episodes of heavy rain will bring flash flooding concerns across the south-central U.S. through early Thursday... An elongated low pressure system and its trailing cold front continues to track eastward across the upper Great Lakes this afternoon. Daytime heating under a warm southwesterly flow ahead of the front will promote the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the interior Northeast and Ohio Valley through this evening. The Storm Prediction Center continues to maintain an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather with high winds and hail being the primary threats. The front is expected to clear the entire Northeast by Wednesday morning, ending the threat of severe weather as gusty westerly winds usher much cooler and drier air from the Great Lakes into the Northeast ahead of a high pressure system. The high pressure system will continue to settle into the Northeast, bringing a chilly and dry morning into the region by Thursday morning. In addition to the severe threat across the interior Northeast and Ohio Valley, severe storms will also be possible farther south and west across portions of western Texas and southwest Oklahoma through this evening. Here, the Storm Prediction Center highlights an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather, with very large hail and damaging winds the greatest threats. An isolated tornado or two is not ruled out as well. Then on Wednesday, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms shifts to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the southern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center outlines a Slight Risk (level 2/5) across parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and the potential for a couple tornadoes are the primary concerns. Meanwhile, the trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall across the southern Plains through tonight before beginning to lift northeastward on Wednesday as a warm front. An episode of heavy rain is expected to impact areas from northern Texas into a large portion of Oklahoma toward the mid-Mississippi Valley as the front remains nearly stationary. Given the already saturated grounds from recent heavy rainfall, and the potential for an additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain, the Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall for portions of the aforementioned areas through Wednesday. Numerous instances of flash flooding are possible, some of which could potentially be significant. On Wednesday, the focus for significant heavy rain and flash flooding shifts only slightly east from the southern Plains toward the western Ozarks of Arkansas where another Moderate Risk highlights the concern for numerous instances of flash flooding due to repeated training of strong thunderstorms for these areas. By later Wednesday into Thursday, another frontal system and strong cold front descending out of the Intermountain West and the northern/central Rockies will sweep to the south and east, ending the severe and flooding threats and bringing cooler air into the region. The aforementioned frontal system that brings an end to the severe weather and flooding concerns across the southern Plains will first push across the Pacific Northwest before digging southward through the Intermountain West and Rockies the next couple of days. This system will bring unsettled weather to the region through midweek, with areas of rain falling in the lower elevations, and accumulating wet snow in the mountains. In the wake of the system and cold front, drier weather works in later Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure takes control. A strong ridge of high pressure extending across much of the eastern U.S. will bring well above average warmth to much of the region through mid to late week. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common, including for more northern locations like the Midwest and Northeast this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Behind the front, portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast cool down briefly Wednesday before warming back up on Thursday. Overall near average temperatures are in store for the Western and central U.S. Wednesday into Thursday before warming up some across the Pacific Northwest heading into the latter half of the week. Miller/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php