Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 30 2025 - 12Z Fri May 02 2025 ...Episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will keep heightened flash flooding concerns across the south-central U.S. through early Thursday... ...Showers and embedded severe thunderstorms expected to shift east into the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday... ...Chance of strong to severe thunderstorms return to the south-central Plains by early Friday morning... A stalled frontal boundary interacting with upper-level disturbances ejecting from the southern Rockies will remain the focus for additional episodes of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the south-central U.S. through today and into early Thursday. The highest threat of heaviest rain is forecast to shift only slightly to the east today across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and western Arkansas where a moderate risk of flash flooding is anticipated. An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is also embedded within this general area. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is expected for a larger portion of the south-central U.S. for today into tonight. By tonight into Thursday, a low pressure system forming along the front will begin to track northeastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, which will effectively end the heavy rainfall and severe weather threats across the south-central U.S. on Thursday. On the other side of the system, showers and embedded severe thunderstorms are forecast to increase and expand across Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. By early Friday morning, the low pressure system should be moving through the Great Lakes with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms across the lower Great Lakes and spreading into New England. Meanwhile, a Pacific frontal system moving across the northern Intermountain West, northern Rockies into the northern High Plains is bringing a round of lower elevation rains and accumulating wet snow in the mountains. In the wake of the system and cold front, drier weather moves in later Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure takes control. By early Friday morning, the cold front will dip south into the southern High Plains and intersect moisture returning from the western Gulf to provide increasing chance of strong to severe thunderstorms extending east into the southern Plains. Across the Northeast, cooler and drier air will arrive today with gusty winds behind a cold front. High pressure will be in control on Thursday before showers and thunderstorms arrive ahead of the low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes Friday morning. The Mid-Atlantic will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday as the front stalls across the region where afternoon temperatures are expected to reach well into the 80s. Florida will enjoy mostly fine and warm to hot weather appropriate for the Sunshine State. The Desert Southwest will remain dry as well. A strong ridge of high pressure extending across much of the eastern U.S. will bring well above average warmth to much of the region through mid to late week. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common. Behind the front, portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast cool down briefly today before warming back up on Thursday. Overall near average temperatures are in store for the western and central U.S. Wednesday into Thursday before warming up some across the Pacific Northwest heading into the latter half of the week. Kong/Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php