Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 301 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 00Z Thu May 01 2025 - 00Z Sat May 03 2025 ...Episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will keep heightened flash flooding concerns across the south-central U.S. through early Thursday... ...Showers and embedded severe thunderstorms expected to shift east into the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday... ...Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms returns to the south-central Plains on Friday... A stalled frontal boundary interacting with upper-level disturbances ejecting from the southern Rockies will remain the focus for additional episodes of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the south-central U.S. into early Thursday. The heaviest rain threat will be confined to portions of southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and western Arkansas where a moderate risk of flash flooding remains in place. An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is also embedded within this general area. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is expected for a larger portion of the south-central U.S. into tonight. By Thursday, a low pressure system forming along the front will begin to track northeastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, which will effectively end the heavy rainfall and severe weather threats across the south-central U.S. However, on the other side of the system, showers and embedded severe thunderstorms are forecast to increase and expand across Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, hail, and an isolated tornado are the primary concerns from any severe storms. Meanwhile, a Pacific frontal system moving across the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern High Plains is bringing a round of lower elevation rains and accumulating wet snow in the mountains. In the wake of the system and cold front, drier weather moves in later tonight into Thursday as high pressure takes control. By early Friday morning, the cold front will dip south into the southern High Plains and intersect moisture returning from the western Gulf to provide increasing chances of strong to severe thunderstorms extending east into the southern Plains Friday afternoon. Across the Northeast, cooler and drier air will gradually filter into the region this afternoon and evening in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will be in control on Thursday before showers and thunderstorms arrive ahead of the low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes on Friday. A strong ridge of high pressure extending across much of the eastern U.S. will bring well above average warmth to much of the region through mid to late week. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common. Overall near average temperatures are in store for the western and central U.S. through Thursday before warming up some across the Pacific Northwest heading into the latter half of the week. Miller/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php