Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 406 PM EDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 00Z Tue May 06 2025 - 00Z Thu May 08 2025 ...Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Central/Southern Rockies... ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast on Tuesday, a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northeast and Southern High Plains on Monday, and the Central Gulf Coast on Wednesday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast on Tuesday; a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms in Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, and a second area over the east coast of Florida on Monday and Southern Plains on Wednesday.... An upper-level low over the Ohio Valley will move very slowly to the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday evening. The circulation around the upper-level low will draw moisture off the Atlantic over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The moisture will aid in creating heavy rain over parts of the Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northeast through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of a stationary front extending from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the east coast of Florida. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the east coast of Florida through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Meanwhile, a second upper-level low over the Southwest will slowly move to the Central/Southern Plains by Wednesday evening. The associated front will aid in producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an added threat of severe thunderstorms, wind gusts of 65 knots, and hail one inch or greater over parts of the Southern Plains. Furthermore, the western upper-level low will pull moisture off the Gulf of America into the Southern High Plains, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High Plains through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Moreover, the upper-level low will produce heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Central/Southern Rockies through early Wednesday. Additionally, as the boundary associated with the western upper-level low moves eastward, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an added risk of hail one inch or greater over parts of the Southern Plains Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over the Central Gulf Coast and Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast and Southern Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. Many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Furthermore, on Wednesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will end. However, the threat of excessive rainfall will continue as showers and thunderstorms continue along the Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast on Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php