Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 327 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 12Z Sat May 10 2025 - 12Z Mon May 12 2025 ...Excessive Rainfall and severe weather to be the focus for the weekend forecast throughout the Southeast... ...Another day of heavy rain for parts of New England today; showers & thunderstorms in the Northwest, but drier in the Southwest, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic... ...Record warmth expected in parts of the West & Northern Plains this weekend... A dawdling storm system along the Gulf Coast will generate rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms this weekend and into the first half of next week. An upper-level low meandering over the Deep South will direct copious amounts of Gulf moisture northward while a stationary front also acts as a trigger for thunderstorms each day. WPC has an expansive Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall that stretches from the Lower Mississippi River Valley to as far east as the Southeast coast each day this weekend. The area most at-risk for flash flooding today is along the Florida Panhandle where torrential rainfall rates are likely to ensue over soils that are becoming increasingly saturated. WPC has hoisted a Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) for parts of the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. By Sunday, the upper low remains stationary over Louisiana while pumping more heavy rainfall into the Southeast. WPC has a larger Slight Risk area for Excessive Rainfall that encompasses most of northern Florida, much of Georgia, and even into portions of South Carolina. There is also a severe component to the forecast as well with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) posting Marginal Risks from the Central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley to the Georgia Coast this weekend. The storm finally begins its slow progression east on Monday, but the Excessive Rainfall threat will extend as far north as the southern Mid-Atlantic and as far south as the Florida Peninsula. The slow progress of this storm system will keep heavy rainfall in the forecast into Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic. Please visit WPC's Medium Range discussion for more details on the forecast for Tuesday onward. Elsewhere, the upper low responsible for heavy rainfall late Thursday and into Friday will make its exit off the Northeast coast by Saturday night. Until then, periods of rain will continue across much of New England this morning before tapering off Saturday evening. Regarding other areas of active weather, a troughing pattern over the Pacific Northwest will direct a series of disturbances at the Northern Rockies and High Plains this weekend. SPC issued Marginal Risks for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail in these regions both today and Sunday. The pattern becomes increasingly unsettled over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday with lingering periods of rain and high elevation mountain snow on Monday. Sandwiched between the wet conditions this weekend in the Southeast and Northwest is a dry stretch of weather for much of the Southwest, Midwest, Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. The weather pattern across the Lower 48 is making for significant temperature anomalies that will persist through the weekend. Thanks to the pair of storm systems causing extensive cloud cover for much of the coastal areas and their associated cold fronts directing cooler temps into the southern and northeastern U.S., temperatures will be below normal from the Rio Grande Valley of western Texas all the way to the Carolinas. Temperature anomalies will largely be 5-10 degrees below normal throughout much of the South and New England. Early morning frost is also possible this morning from the upper Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians. Meanwhile, a large upper level ridge will park itself over the western and northern U.S. that will foster very warm temperatures for mid-May, making Mother's Day Weekend feel more like an early kick-off to summer in some locations. Record warmth is forecast today from Southern California and the Great Basin to the northern High Plains. Some parts of Southern California may see high temperatures reach triple digits, while morning lows may also challenge record warm levels for this time of year. By Sunday, the record heat moves into the Upper Midwest with many 90+ degree readings expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Temperature anomalies throughout the West are likely to range between 15-25 degrees above normal and will potentially approach 30 degrees above normal in the Northern Plains by Sunday. NWS's HeatRisk does depict Moderate to scattered instances of Major heat potential in the Southwest on this weekend, as well as up in the Northern Plains by Sunday. Please visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ for more information on the NWS HeatRisk products. Mullinax Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php