Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 00Z Sun May 11 2025 - 00Z Tue May 13 2025 ...Excessive Rainfall and severe weather focusing throughout the Southeast into early next week... ...Record warmth expected in parts of the West & Northern Plains this weekend... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to impact the Southeast U.S. over the next few days. An upper-level low meandering over the Deep South will direct copious amounts of Gulf moisture northward while a stationary front also acts as a trigger for thunderstorms each day. WPC has an expansive Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall that stretches from the Lower Mississippi River Valley to as far east as the Southeast coast through Tuesday morning; Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) fro Florida Panhandle/southeast Alabama today and expanding across the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic regions Sunday and Monday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a Marginal Risk from the Central Gulf Coast to the Georgia Coast this weekend with a Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) for the Florida Panhandle and portions of southern Alabama and Georgia through Sunday morning. Please visit WPC's Medium Range discussion for more details on the forecast for Tuesday onward. Further north, lingering rain across the Northeast will taper over tonight as the upper low moves out of the region. A troughing pattern over the Pacific Northwest will direct a series of disturbances at the Northern Rockies and High Plains this weekend. Portions of the West and Northern High Plains have been identified by SPC to have a Marginal Risk for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail in these regions through Sunday. The pattern becomes increasingly unsettled over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday with lingering periods of rain and high elevation mountain snow on Monday. Sandwiched between the wet conditions this weekend in the Southeast and Northwest is a dry stretch of weather for much of the Southwest, Midwest, Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. The extensive cloud cover is contributing to persistent cooler temperatures than seasonal normal for May for southern and northern parts of the country. Daily temperatures will be below normal from the Rio Grande Valley of western Texas all the way to the Carolinas and the Northeast, averaging 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Early morning frost is also possible this morning from the upper Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians. In contrast, ridging over the West and northern states will favor very warm temperatures for mid-May, making Mother's Day Weekend feel more like an early kick-off to summer in some locations. Record warmth is forecast today from Southern California and the Great Basin to the northern High Plains. Some parts of Southern California may see high temperatures reach triple digits, while morning lows may also challenge record warm levels for this time of year. By Sunday, the record heat moves into the Upper Midwest with many 90+ degree readings expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Temperature anomalies throughout the West are likely to range between 15-25 degrees above normal and will potentially approach 30 degrees above normal in the Northern Plains by Sunday. NWS's HeatRisk does depict Moderate to scattered instances of Major heat potential in the Southwest on this weekend, as well as up in the Northern Plains by Sunday. Please visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ for more information on the NWS HeatRisk products. Campbell/Mullinax Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php