Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 Valid 00Z Tue May 13 2025 - 00Z Thu May 15 2025 ...A Slow moving mid to upper level low to bring heavy rain and flooding potential from Southeast Florida, into the Southern to Central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic... ...Record heat to continue across the Northern Plains and develop across the Southern Plains... ...A strong cold front to produce much below average temperatures across large portions of the West Tuesday and Wednesday... ...Elevated to critical fire weather threats for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains and Southwest... A well defined closed low over the central Gulf coastal region will be lifting slowly northward over the next two days across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley and into the Lower Great Lakes region. This system will be supporting potential for widespread heavy rains, especially on the eastern side of the circulation from Southeast Florida, northward into the Mid-Atlantic, Southern to Central Appalachians and Lower Great Lakes, where above average moisture values are expected. Much of these regions are currently experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions, with these rains potentially beneficial. However, there will also be the threat of flooding and flash flooding, as storms may be slow moving and repeat over the same area. This threat is especially so across urban areas of Southeast Florida and the Mid-Atlantic and across the higher terrain areas of the Southern to Central Appalachians. Flood watches are currently in effect across Southeast Florida, central Alabama, central North Carolina and across the Southern to Central Appalachians from western North Carolina, northeast through western Virginia, eastern West Virginia and far western Maryland, affecting nearly 20 million people. While the heaviest rains with this slow moving system are expected on it eastern side from Southeast Florida, into the Mid-Atlantic, Southern to Central Appalachians and Lower Great Lakes, widespread scattered showers are also likely from the Central Gulf coast, north through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the Mid-West. Much of these areas will see light to moderate totals, with potential for isolated heavy totals, but not as widespread as on the eastern side of the slow moving mid to upper level low. While a strong slow moving mid to upper level flow affects much of the eastern U.S. over the next two days, another strong mid to upper level low will be pushing inland from the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday and then into the Northern High Plains on Wednesday. Widespread scattered areas of light to moderate precip totals possible from the Northern Sierra/northern California into the Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies late Monday afternoon through Tuesday. There will be the potential for heavier precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. The strong associated surface cold front with this mid to upper level low is already producing much below average temperatures Monday from Central to Northern California into the Pacific Northwest. These much below average temperatures will spread southward into Southern California and eastward into the Great Basin/Northern Rockies on Tuesday and into the Southwest and Central Rockies on Wednesday. In contrast to the much below average temperatures spreading eastward with time across the West, much above to record high temperatures will continue across large sections of the Plains into Mid Week. Additional record highs likely Tuesday and Wednesday from the Dakotas into Minnesota and also developing across portions of south central Texas. Across the areas of much above average temperatures, gust winds, dry conditions and low relative humidities are also expected and will produce elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag warnings are currently in effect across large portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley, Upper Great Lakes region and over portions of the Southwest, affecting over 10 million people. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php