Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 00Z Thu May 15 2025 - 00Z Sat May 17 2025 ...Heavy rain axis possible across the Dakotas into north central Nebraska... ...Severe weather threat from the Central to Northern Plains Wednesday night into early Thursday, from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes into the Lower Ohio Valley during Thursday and over the Ohio Valley and Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley on Friday... ...Additional heavy rains and flooding threats for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night... ...Record highs expected from the Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley Thursday and from the Southern Plains into the Southeast on Friday... ...Much above average temperatures and recent record heat to come to an end across the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley region... ...Elevated to Critical fire weather threat to continue across portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains... A developing area of low pressure over the Central Plains Thursday evening will support a very active thunderstorm, heavy rain, flooding and severe weather pattern across the Central to Northern Plains, Upper to Mid Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the next few days. Thunderstorm activity across the Northern Plains Thursday afternoon will continue to enhance into Thursday night from Nebraska, northward into the Dakotas. An axis of heavy rains likely over the next two days from north central Nebraska, north through much of the Dakotas. These heavy rains will be much beneficial as they are forecast to fall across areas that are currently experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. In addition to the heavy rains, isolated flooding is possible along with severe thunderstorms. High winds and large hail will be the greatest severe weather risk across these areas, with a lesser risk of tornadoes. The severe weather threat with this system will be pushing eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Mid-West and Lower Ohio Valley region during the day on Thursday, with large hail, high winds and tornadoes all a threat . Rainfall amounts, however, are not expected to be as heavy as for portions of the Central and Northern Plains as the thunderstorms are expected to be fairly quick moving to the east and northeast compared to the very slow moving area of rains over the Central and Northern Plains. Yet another round of active thunderstorms and potentially severe weather is possible Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley, into the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley region. Across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Central Appalachians, additional heavy rains and flooding are possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as another round of heavy rains are developing ahead of a northward moving mid to upper level low moving across these areas. This next round of rains may fall across regions of western Virginia, far eastern West Virginia, far western Maryland and far southwest Pennsylvania that have received 3 to 7 inches of rain over the past two days. With soils saturated and stream flow above average from the previous heavy rains, additional flooding is possible with this next round of heavy rains. Flood watches are currently in effect across these areas, affecting nearly 6 million people. The above mentioned active weather across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley will be bringing an end to the recent much above average and record temperatures that have stretched across the Dakotas into Minnesota. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s Wednesday across this area will drop to much below average levels in the 40s and 50s Thursday, Friday and Saturday. While temperatures cool across the north central tier of the nation, much above average temperatures expected across the Central to Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, eastward to the East coast over the next two days. Record high temperatures are possible Thursday from South and East Texas, northeastward into the Lower Missouri Valley and Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday and from East and South Texas, eastward into the Southeast U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, the widespread below average temperatures currently from the Rockies to the West coast will begin to moderate over the next two days, before another round of much below temperatures spread into the West this weekend. Across eastern portions of the Southwest into the Southern High Plains, dry conditions, low relative humidities and gusty winds expected to continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat over the next two days. Red Flag warnings are currently in effect across southeast Arizona, nearly all of New Mexico and far Southwest Texas, affecting approximately 3 million people. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php