Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 00Z Fri May 16 2025 - 00Z Sun May 18 2025 ...An active severe weather pattern to continue from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes, into the Ohio Valley and Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley over the next few days... ...Heavy rain possible across the Northern Plains into Friday, with heavy rains and flash flooding possible for portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday... ...Above to much above average temperatures to stretch from the Central to Southern Plains to the east coast, with record high temperatures to continue from South and East Texas into the Southeast and Florida. Below average temperatures expected from the Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest... A very favorable large scale pattern will persist across the mid section of the nation over the next few days to support an active severe thunderstorm pattern for a large region from the Great Lakes, south through nearly all of the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley regions. Thunderstorms are beginning to enhance Thursday afternoon across southern Minnesota, with this activity expected to continue to blossom into the evening and overnight hours tonight as they push eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. This will be followed by another round of thunderstorms Friday afternoon from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes, southward into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley regions. With both rounds of thunderstorms, large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rains and flash flooding are possible, especially on Friday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. By Saturday, the threat of severe weather will shift south into the Southern Plains and eastward to the Mid-Atlantic with calmer weather on tap from the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, northward into the Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley. Heavy rains also possible from northern South Dakota into North Dakota Thursday night through Friday where an area of persistent light to moderate rainfall intensity will occur. Severe weather not a threat across these areas, with only a marginal risk of some flooding. Large portions of the Lower 48 from the Central to Southern Plains, east to the east coast will experience above the much above average temperatures as the work week ends and the weekend begins. This large region of above to much above average temperatures will produce Moderate to Major Heat Risks across these regions. The greatest risks will be across the southern tier from East and South Texas, eastward along the Gulf Coast, into the Southeast and Florida. Across these regions, there will be potential for both record high afternoon temperatures Friday and Saturday and record high morning temperatures Friday, Saturday and Sunday mornings. In contrast to the much above average temperatures across much the central to eastern U.S...below average temperatures expected from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Northern Plains, Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest Friday and Saturday. Below average temperatures will also be developing by the end of the weekend from the Southwest, through the Great Basin and persisting across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains in association with the next strong mid to upper level system moving inland off the eastern Pacific. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php