Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 406 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 00Z Tue May 20 2025 - 00Z Thu May 22 2025 ...The risk for severe weather and flash flooding will shift eastward across the Mississippi Valley and South on Tuesday and across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday ... ...Above average temperatures continue across parts of Texas, the Florida Peninsula, and across California and the Southwest... ...Much of the northern and eastern tier of the country will see showery and cool conditions as an area of low pressure matures and moves eastward from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic... A maturing central U.S. storm system is producing dangerous storms this afternoon and expected to continue through this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk across much of the southern Plains and into the western zones of the Mississippi Valley. All severe weather hazards are likely: large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are possible. Additionally, a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall is active across most of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri with a Slight Risk extending across much of the Mississippi Valley. Storms are expected to expand in coverage and may train. Some locations could see 4-5 inches in the near term through the overnight. Turn around, don't drown ! The severe weather risk and flooding risk will shift east across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys for tomorrow. The current severe weather outlook has an Enhanced Risk for these regions with a mix storm mode of organized clusters and discrete supercells. Hazards of a few strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are messaged. The flooding risk will not be as high tomorrow, but scattered flash flooding will certainly be possible where thunderstorm complexes train and drop high hourly rainfall rates. Because of this threat, WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across much of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region. On Wednesday, the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic have a Marginal Risk for severe weather as thunderstorms along a cold front could produce some gusty winds and contain a tornado or two. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is valid for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as a shield of rainfall in association with the storm system may bring 1-2 inches of rainfall. Some isolated flooding could be possible in sensitive urban areas and small streams. The Heat Advisories and Warnings over Texas have been allowed to drop as temperatures have cooled off to an extent. However, temperatures will remain above average. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to middle 90s across the gulf shores and the upper 90s to even low 100s for parts of central Texas to the Rio Grande region. My home state of Florida will remain around 5-10 degrees above average as ridging continues to hold strong and brings warm and mostly dry conditions. For the specifics, middle 90s are expected for the short range. The Heat Risk Index has some of the metros of Orlando and Miami beginning to enter the Major category. People should avoid activities in the peak heating hours and stay hydrated. The Southwest will also see heat build as mid-level ridging takes hold over the region. Moderate and Major Heat Risk is expected tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday for most of the Desert Southwest, including the Los Angeles metro. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 90s across the California valleys to the low 100s across the Deserts. On the other side of the coin, much of the northern and eastern U.S. will be cool and unsettled as general upper troughing and rain from the low pressure system traversing from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread morning low temperatures in the 30s and 40s across the Inter-Mountain West and Northern Plains will be possible for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Low temperatures may bring frost potential across upper parts of the Northeast on Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will then remain in the lower to middle 40s through Thursday across the Northeast. For precipitation, much of the Midwest and northern Plains will see rain showers for Tuesday and Wednesday with cool high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have a particularly wet and windy Wednesday and Thursday with below average high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Most of the areas discussed could see high temperatures more than 20 degrees cooler than expected for mid-late May. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php