Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 234 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 12Z Thu May 22 2025 - 12Z Sat May 24 2025 ...Severe weather potential in Southern Plains today; cold and rainy in the Northeast... ...Above average temperatures across southern tier states and West; below average temperatures from Northern Plains to Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... A relatively stagnant upper pattern with troughing along the coasts and ridging over the Central U.S. will persist through the end of the week. Low pressure in the East will produce cool and rainy weather from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. Some isolated thunderstorms could produce excessive rainfall over portions of southern New England today but that threat is marginal. A surface low pressure system an attendant quasi-stationary front draped across northern Texas/Oklahoma will be the focus for potential severe storms this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms across much of the Red River Valley where large hail will be the main threat, along with damaging winds. 2+ inch diameter hail are possible according to SPC. There's another Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms in northeast Colorado, southeast Nebraska and northwest Kansas where the northern extension of the Southern Plains stationary front and a dry line will focus storms on Friday. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats associated with storms that materialize. Rainfall aside, an upper low parked over the Great Lakes and Northeast will facilitate cooler temperatures across the Northern Plains, Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for the next several days. High temperatures in the 40s, 50s and low 60s will represent temperature anomalies between 20-35 degrees below average. Widespread low maximum temperature records may be tied or broken from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic today and Friday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge in the West and central U.S. will produce above average temperatures across the Southern and Western U.S.. Some high minimum temperature records may be tied or broken in Florida. Meanwhile, moderate to locally Major HeatRisk will increase over south Texas beneath a building upper ridge through the rest of the week. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php