Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 310 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 12Z Fri May 23 2025 - 12Z Sun May 25 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday and Saturday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys on Friday and Saturday... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over the Southwest on Friday... Upper-level energy extending from the Great Lakes to Northern New England will slowly move into Southeastern Canada by Sunday. The system will produce scattered rain and showers over the region through Sunday. Meanwhile, a front extending from the Southern Plains into the Central Rockies and southwestward into the Great Basin will be quasi-stationary through Sunday. Moisture flowing northward out of the Gulf of America will overrun the eastern part of the boundary, creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Furthermore, there is a risk of the showers and thunderstorms being severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, mainly over the Central High Plains. The setup will be the same as on Saturday, with moisture flowing northward over the Southern Central Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Saturday through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Likewise, there is a risk of the showers and thunderstorms being severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Saturday through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater over the area. Elsewhere, upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies through late Saturday night. In addition, daytime heating will create scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region on Friday and the Great Basin on Saturday. Further, a very dry and deeply mixed air mass will support relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent (as low as 5-10 percent), and sustained winds 15-20 mph across much of Arizona into New Mexico prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather over the region on Friday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php