Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 410 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 00Z Sat May 24 2025 - 00Z Mon May 26 2025 ...A multi-day heavy rainfall event will bring an increasingly likely flash flood threat to portions of the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend... ...Severe thunderstorms will be possible each day through Sunday for portions of the central to southern High Plains into the Gulf Coast states... ...Temperatures will be cooler than average from the north-central U.S. to the East Coast, while locations in the West and South will be well above average... The main weather feature across the lower 48 over the Memorial Day holiday weekend will be a slow moving front which will set up from the coast of the southeastern U.S. into Oklahoma and the central High Plains. The nearly stationary nature of this boundary over the next 2-3 days, combined with low level moisture return from the Gulf, will maintain an active period of weather from the central and southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast. Beginning tonight, multiple rounds of thunderstorms containing heavy rain and areas of severe weather will develop from portions of Kansas/Oklahoma into the Ozark region. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to weaken and translate off toward the southeast Saturday morning with a brief lull before another round of storms develops Saturday evening across some of the same areas of the central/southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Yet another round is expected from Sunday into Monday for some of these same locations. Daily threats of flash flooding are expected from southeastern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas, which are likely to contribute to areas of considerable river and flash flood impacts into Monday. Some of these storms could be severe with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting Slight Risks each day for similar areas of the Plains into and across the lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures to the south of the front, extending from the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma into the southeastern U.S. will be well above average with widespread high temperatures into the 90s and even some lower 100s for portions of interior Texas on Saturday and Sunday. Some daily record highs could be broken from Texas into Louisiana and perhaps north-central Florida. Warmer than average temperatures will also be found over a good portion of the Intermountain West and West Coast. Meanwhile, temperatures to the north of the front will remain about 10 to 20 degrees cooler than average from the central and northern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley. Across the Northeast, a closed mid-level low will be slow to depart from the area over the weekend which will keep the region cooler and unsettled with scattered rain showers. Rain shower coverage will be a bit lower on Sunday compared to Saturday as the closed low begins to exit the region toward the east, but an upstream disturbance will maintain a threat for rain into Sunday evening, especially for Upstate New York into western New England. While rainfall totals are expected to stay on the low side, relatively speaking, the best chances for rain will extend from New York into all of New England. High temperatures will be roughly 10 to 20 degrees below average from the upper Ohio Valley into New England on Saturday with a moderating trend into Sunday and Memorial Day, but remaining below late May averages. Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php