Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 327 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 Valid 12Z Sat May 24 2025 - 12Z Mon May 26 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday... ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys, and the Tennessee Valley on Saturday and Sunday... Upper-level energy extending from the Great Lakes to Northern New England will slowly move into Southeastern Canada by Sunday. Additional upper-level energy will move over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast on Sunday into Monday. The system will produce scattered rain and showers over the Northeast into the Great Lakes, ending by Monday. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary front extending from the Southeast northwestward to the Southern Plains and Central Rockies will remain through Monday. Moisture flowing northward out of the Gulf of America will overrun the boundary, creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Furthermore, there is a risk of the showers and thunderstorms being severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over the Southern Plains. The threat of excessive rainfall increases on Sunday as moisture continues to flow northward over the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, producing showers and thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Moreover, there is a risk of the showers and thunderstorms being severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Southern High Plains. Further, upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies into the Northern Plains through late Saturday night. Elsewhere, a front approaches the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, moving inland to the Northern Intermountain Region and then to Northern California by Monday. The system will produce light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Sunday evening into Monday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php