Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 251 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 12Z Sun May 25 2025 - 12Z Tue May 27 2025 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys on Monday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Monday... A quasi-stationary front extending from the Southeast to the Southern Plains and Central Rockies will remain through Tuesday. Moisture flowing northward out of the Gulf of America will overrun the boundary, creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Furthermore, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail, two inches or greater, over the Southern Plains. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic on Sunday. On Monday, the risk of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain continues over parts of the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of these areas from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Likewise, severe thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the region. Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a front approaches the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, moving inland to the Northern Rockies/Northern Intermountain Region and into parts of the Great Basin by Tuesday. The system will produce light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Sunday evening into Monday. On Monday, the rain will move slowly into the Northern Rockies/Northern Intermountain Region and end over the Northwest. Furthermore, an upper-level low will develop over the Upper Midwest Monday evening into Tuesday, creating light rain over parts of the Northern Plains. Elsewhere, upper-level energy over the Northeast will produce scattered rain and showers over the Northeast through late Monday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php