Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 240 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 Valid 00Z Mon May 26 2025 - 00Z Wed May 28 2025 ...Thunderstorms and locally heavy rain over the southern Plains into th Mid-South Monday... ...Cool temperatures persist for the central Plains to the Northeast... ...Warm/hot temperatures for the Gulf Coast region... A wavy frontal boundary will meander in place from the southern Rockies eastward through Texas/Oklahoma and into the Southeast. This separates warm/hot temperatures to the south (80s/90s to low 100s over parts of Texas) and much cooler temperatures to the north (60s/70s). For South Texas, HeatRisk levels will approach Major/Extreme levels and record high temperatures are possible (along with heat indices near and above 110F). Showers and thunderstorms are favored at times near and south of the frontal boundary on Memorial Day into Tuesday, especially in the afternoon. Some areas may see heavier rain with localized flooding, especially if those areas have seen rain in the past day or two. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding for northeastern Texas into the Mid-South on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center also denotes a Slight Risk for severe weather over parts of Texas on Monday, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds in severe thunderstorms. To the north of the front, scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are possible on Monday over the central Plains where temperatures will be cooler. By Tuesday, the heavier rainfall threat will move eastward but become less focused. Isolated heavier rainfall along with some severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas northeastward through the Southeast/Tennessee Valley into the Midwest as an area of low pressure forms Tuesday morning near Middle Tennessee. Showers will also spread to the southern Appalachians which will remain cooler than normal due to the cloud cover and easterly flow off the still cold Atlantic Ocean. Into the Northeast, the long-lived system will finally pull away by tomorrow with only isolated showers mainly in the mountains. Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer than on Sunday but will remain below normal for late May -- only in the 60s/70s. By Tuesday, temperatures will continue to moderate through the 70s. For the West, an incoming system will bring some light rain to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies before weakening over Montana. Cooler temperatures on Monday (60s/70s) will quickly rebound on Tuesday back to above normal readings -- 70s/80s. Fracasso Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php