Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 313 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 Valid 12Z Mon May 26 2025 - 12Z Wed May 28 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys on Monday and over the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, and Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians on Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and Tuesday... A quasi-stationary front extending from the Southeast to the Southern Plains and Central Rockies will have a wave of low pressure move into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. Moisture flowing northward out of the Gulf of America will overrun the boundary, creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of these areas through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Southern Plains. Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains into the Northern Rockies on Monday. On Tuesday, the stationary front starts to move southeastward over the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, producing severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over two areas: the first area over the Southern Plains and the second over the Lower Mississippi Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Southern Plains. Moreover, the threat of excessive rainfall will extend along the front from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over two areas, the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Furthermore, as the wave of low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, the wave of low pressure will produce rain over parts of the Upper Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over the Southeast. Meanwhile, a front over the Pacific Northwest on Monday moves inland to the Northern Rockies and dissipates overnight Tuesday. The system will produce light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Monday morning and into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region by late Monday evening and end over the Northwest overnight Monday. On Tuesday, the rain will move slowly into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains. Furthermore, an upper-level low will develop over the Upper Midwest Monday evening into Wednesday, creating light rain over parts of the Upper Midwest. Elsewhere, lingering upper-level energy over the Northeast will produce scattered rain and showers over parts of the Northeast through late Monday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php