Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 307 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 00Z Wed May 28 2025 - 00Z Fri May 30 2025 ...Unsettled weather containing chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to continue across much of the south-central United States, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic... ...Building early summer heat to begin impacting much of the West by midweek... With Memorial Day 2025 now in the rear-view mirror, the weather pattern for the final week of May features continued widespread shower and thunderstorm chances spanning from the central/southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Two separate areas of low pressure pushing northeast (one currently over the Tennessee Valley and the other along the Southeast coastline) are expected to spread rainfall into the Mid-Atlantic tonight and eventually the Northeast by Thursday morning. Meanwhile, thunderstorm activity continuing along a stalled out frontal boundary stretching from the Southeast to the southern Plains will focus the potential for some storms to turn severe and contain intense rainfall rates. Specifically, the severe weather and excessive rainfall outlooks highlight western/south-central Texas as well as the Southeast as having the greatest chances for strong storms and instances of flash flooding through early Wednesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, continued shower activity is forecast across the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and spreading into parts of the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms are likely to the south as increased levels of atmospheric moisture content combine with warmer temperatures and elevated levels of instability. An area of low pressure developing across the central High Plains and swinging eastward across the Ozarks by Thursday will help lift a warm front through the southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley, which will help spark a cluster of thunderstorms traversing the region. Storms across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles as well as West Texas may contain damaging wind gusts and large hail on Wednesday. As this system continues to push eastward on Thursday it will squeeze the best chances for intense rainfall to the Southeast and central Gulf Coast, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive rainfall has been issued. Due to the cloudy, rainy weather throughout the central and eastern U.S. through midweek, the temperature outlook is fairly cool with widespread below average temperatures most notable in the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday and central U.S. Thursday. However, the West is expected to tell a different, more summer-like, story to end the month of May. An anomalous upper ridge building over western Canada will allow for warmer temperatures to overspread the northern/central Great Basin and into the northern High Plains by midweek before the pattern truly amplifies by Friday and propels for more extreme heat into California and the remainder of the western United States. Sticking with Wednesday and Thursday for now, not really an expectation for numerous daily records, but highs are forecast to reach into the 80s and 90s for much of the region. Meanwhile, low triple digits are forecast for the typically hot Southwest Desert locations over the next few days. Be sure to plan ahead and follow proper heat safety this week as early-season heat waves can be particularly dangerous! Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php