Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 02 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 04 2025 ...Moderate to heavy rain will be moving across the Southwest and Four Corners today with flash flooding possible... ...Heavy rain, severe weather, and flooding threat develop today over the north-central Plains, shifting to the south-central Plains and toward the upper Midwest on Tuesday... ...Tropical moisture is expected to become more focused across South Florida and then spread northward through the next couple of days... As an expanding high pressure system settles into the eastern half of the U.S., unsettled weather will be expanding across the western U.S. toward the central U.S. through the next couple of days. There are two pieces of ingredient associated with the unsettled weather in the West. A strong cold front originating from the Pacific continues to shove the recent spell of heat in the western U.S. into the mid-section of the country. Meanwhile, a batch of moderate to heavy rain ahead of an upper-level low across the Desert Southwest early this Monday morning is forecast to overspread the Four Corners and the central/southern Rockies for the remainder of today. Locally terrain-enhanced rainfall could pose a risk for flash flooding for these areas. The strong front arriving from the north will then collide and interact with the moisture arriving from the central/southern Rockies to produce a around of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms over the mid-section of the country later today into much of Tuesday. The heaviest rainfall for today is expected across the north-central Plains where a low pressure wave is forecast to develop and track quickly across the region, reaching into the upper Midwest by Tuesday morning. High temperatures in the lower 90s this afternoon will be drastically lowered behind the strong cold front under blustery northerly winds as a high pressure system builds southward from western Canada. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms will also be active farther south ahead of a dry line where severe thunderstorms are also possible across the southern High Plains this evening/tonight. Tuesday will find the strong cold front pushing farther eastward, leading to the heavy rain, severe weather, and flooding threat shifting into the south-central Plains and toward the upper Midwest. The trailing portion of the front will then dip into Texas by Tuesday evening. Thunderstorms forming ahead of the cold front and the dry line could once again become strong to severe as the storms march eastward across the Southern Plains Tuesday night. The dynamics associated with the front are expected to weaken Tuesday night. This will lead to a gradual lessening threat of severe weather as the showers and thunderstorms move into the Great Lakes, Midwest and into eastern Texas by Wednesday morning. The heavy rains will bring some drought relief to portions of the central U.S. while additional heavy rains will move across locations in the Southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley where much above average precipitation has occurred over the past month. The heavy rain threat across the Central to Southern Plains will also be accompanied by severe weather threat, with high winds and large hail the greatest threat but with a lesser threat for tornadoes. Across the Sunshine State, tropical moisture in the vicinity of a stalled front is forecast to linger and gradually become more focused across South Florida where heavy rain becomes possible by later today. A piece of upper-level trough diving into the Gulf Coast this morning will begin to interact with the tropical moisture over Florida. This interaction will tend to lift the core of the moisture northward, leading to the threat of heavy rain nudging up the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday into Wednesday morning, and especially along the east coast of Florida. Kong/Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php