Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 04 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 06 2025 ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms across the Southern Plains weaken today but the next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected to impact the south-central U.S. beginning Thursday night... ...Heavy showers and thunderstorms, as well as the potential for scattered flash flooding, are expected across the Four Corners into the central/southern High Plains... ...Tropical moisture across South Florida is forecast to spread further up the Florida Peninsula and into the coastal Southeast... A cold front extending from Texas through the Great Lakes has been the focus of widespread strong to severe thunderstorms marching eastward across the mid-section of the country. The dynamics associated with the front are forecast to weaken today, resulting in significant lessening of the threat of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms by the time the front moves further into the Midwest and the lower Great Lakes later today. The next weather maker will be associated with another upper-level trough/low currently moving onshore near the California-Mexico border. Upper-level dynamics ahead of this system have already triggered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms early this morning from southern Carlifornia through northern Arizona and northern New Mexico. This system will head further eastward and begin to interact with the frontal system that has stalled over the Southern Plains. This will result in rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing across the central and southern High Plains by tonight. These activities will become heavier and more frequent as the upper low moves closer. By Thursday night into Friday morning, a low pressure wave is forecast to form over the southern High Plains and then track eastward, setting the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the south-central U.S. beginning Thursday night. Meanwhile, tropical moisture that has already brought heavy rain across South Florida in the vicinity of a stalled front will continue to interact with an upper-level trough over the northeastern Gulf. This interaction will lift the core of the tropical moisture northward, leading to the threat of heavy rain spreading up the Florida Peninsula for the remainder of today, especially across South Florida. The upper trough will then interact with a coastal front and develop a surface low pressure area. This low is forecast to track further up the coast of the southeastern U.S. on Thursday, and the center could reach the eastern shores of North Carolina by Friday morning. While the bulk of the heaviest rainfall associated with this system should remain just offshore, a couple inches of rain can be expected to fall along coastal Carolinas, and especially along the immediate coast where higher amounts are possible through Friday morning. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the possibility for this system to organize and develop subtropical or tropical characteristics near/off the coast of the Southeast U.S. through the next couple of days. Behind a cold front sagging southward across the Plains, temperatures will be around 10-20 degrees below average for early June. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s will be commonplace for the heart of the nation. While temperatures cool across the mid-section of the country, the opposite will occur along the East coast. The recent prolonged period of below average temperatures will be replaced by an increasing area of above average temperatures from the mid- to lower Mississippi Valley, east into nearly all of the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds across these regions. High temperatures will range around 10-15 degrees above average and will reach the upper 80s to even the low 90s for region in the Northeast by the end of the week. The exception to the above average temperatures in the East will be across Florida and the coastal Southeast where temperatures will be below average due to the presence of tropical moisture under the developing low pressure system. Kong/Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php