Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Jun 05 2025 - 00Z Sat Jun 07 2025 ...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will drive a threat for scattered areas of flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the southern Plains through tonight and Thursday... ...A threat for severe weather will exist across the southern Plains on Thursday, and as far east as the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday... ...A low pressure system developing over the interior of the Southeast may result in some heavy rainfall here along with some localized potential for flash flooding... A storm system traversing the Southwest U.S. will continue to favor a regional threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms through tonight which may bring sufficient rainfall for at least scattered areas of flash flooding. This will include potential impacts to some of the area burn scar locations, local slot canyon areas, and also the normally dry washes. Up to a couple inches of new rainfall will be possible by early Thursday morning, and the Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2/4) across portions of southern Utah, northern Arizona, northwest New Mexico and southwest Colorado. This same storm system will then eject east out into the central and southern Plains by later Thursday where it will begin to interact with a frontal zone that is already draped from the southern Plains northeastward up across the Ohio Valley. This frontal zone will generally remain in place over the next couple of days and will allow for multiple waves of low pressure to ride northeast up along it. This will drive broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms which will drive additional concerns for some flash flooding, but also severe weather. The greatest threat for severe weather should tend to be over the southern High Plains from eastern New Mexico into portions of Oklahoma and Texas going through Thursday where the Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms. A threat of large hail, damaging winds and potentially a few tornadoes will exist, and especially Thursday afternoon and evening. On Friday, this threat of severe weather will extent well off to the east and extend from the southern Plains east into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where a broad Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is now depicted. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so across the interior of the Southeast which will move slowly across portions of the eastern Carolinas and eventually offshore of the Virginia Capes by Friday night. Tropical moisture lifting northward in association with this will bring a threat of heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. A few inches of rainfall is generally expected across the coastal plain. Behind the aforementioned frontal zone draping from the southern Plains, Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast, temperatures will generally be below normal with highs especially over portions of the Plains running as much as 10 to 20 degrees below average for early June. Temperatures will also be below normal over portions of the Southwest and the Southeast U.S. where extensive cloud cover and areas of heavy rain will keep temperatures cooler. Much above average temperatures are forecast for the Northeast U.S. ahead of the front where some high temperatures may reach over 90s on Thursday. Very warm to locally hot temperatures are also expected by Friday across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Great Basin. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php