Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 343 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 00Z Wed Jun 11 2025 ...Active severe weather setup from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday... ...Heavy showers & thunderstorms to pose both a flash flooding and severe weather threat for the eastern Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast... ...Stifling heat dome to build in throughout much of the West and the western Gulf Coast; hottest temperatures compared to normal centered over the Northwest... A pair of frontal boundaries will act as catalysts for widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into the start of the upcoming week across much of southern and eastern U.S.. The Southern Plains are most at-risk for severe weather this afternoon and into tonight, highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing northern Texas and southern Oklahoma under a Moderate Risk (threat level 4/5) which includes the greater Dallas/Fort Worth metro area. The primary concern is a long-track line of intense thunderstorms with destructive wind gust potential tonight that could track a long enough distance and produce enough damage to be considered a "derecho". There is also the concern for tornadoes and large hail this afternoon and into tonight in this region as well. The severe weather potential also extends farther away from the Red River region with severe storms stretching from the TX/OK Panhandles on east to the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valleys. Farther east, a compact storm system tracking through the Upper Ohio Valley this afternoon will support a severe weather threat from the Ohio River on east to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts. SPC has a lengthy Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) that goes from southern Georgia on north to the DC/Baltimore metro areas. In addition to the severe weather potential today and tonight, WPC has several Slight Risk areas (threat level 2/4) for threat of flash flooding in the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex, along the Central Gulf Coast, and from the Upper Ohio Valley on east to the Virginia Tidewater. The severe and flash flooding potential continues tomorrow throughout the South and up the East Coast as the southern frontal boundary inches closer to the Gulf Coast and a new encroaching cold front approaches the East Coast from the Great Lakes. Slight Risks for Excessive Rainfall are in place in the Deep South and the northern Mid-Atlantic, while the severe threat stems from eastern New Mexico and across the South to areas as far north as the eastern Great Lakes. Tuesday should remain active from the Rio Grande Valley on east along the Gulf and East Coasts. SPC features an expansive Marginal Risk (threat level 1/5) in these areas, while WPC has a Slight Risk posted fro southeast New Mexico and western Texas. Farther south, Florida's rainfall/thunderstorm chances look to increase through the first half of the week as the cold front inches closer to the Panhandle each day. While the South and East are mired in a stormy weather pattern, the West will be mostly dry to close the weekend and to open the upcoming week. The lone exceptions are the mountains ranges throughout the West which include the Sierra Nevada, the Great Basin, and along the spine of the Rockies. Look for diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening that dissipate each night across the Intermountain West. The Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest will not only be dry, but grow hotter each day into the first half of the week. The hottest temperatures compared to normal for early-mid June are most likely to be found in the Northwest with daily high temperatures encroaching upon daily record highs through Tuesday. High temperatures will soar into the 90s across the interior Northwest with some spots forecast to hit the century mark. NWS HeatRisk shows widespread Moderate Impacts and scattered areas of Major Impacts across the Portland metro area today and the Columbia Basin on Monday. Similar HeatRisk criteria exists from the Great Valley of California on south through the remainder of the Desert Southwest. High temperatures are forecast to easily reach the 90s and even the 100s (particularly the Mojave Desert and Lower Colorado River Basin) each day. Farther east, searing heat remains a common occurrence from the Big Bend of Texas on east through much of south Texas and in far southern Louisiana. HeatRisk shows Major heat impacts (heat that effects anyone without effective cooling/hydration) in metro areas that include San Antonia and Houston through Monday. Mullinax Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php