Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025 ...Heavy to Excessive Rainfall likely across parts of Texas and Oklahoma over the next few days... ...Hot weather continues out West with some moderation across the Pacific Northwest... The main thing making weather headlines through the middle to end of the work week will be the widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across much of the southern Plains, with a particular focus across central and eastern Texas, the ArkLaTex region and western Louisiana. Multiple rounds of storms with heavy rainfall will be fueled by a moist low level jet, and moisture convergence along outflow boundaries will serve as focusing mechanisms for additional rounds of convection. There is a high likelihood of 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals across much of this region through Friday morning, with isolated 4-6 inch totals within the realm of possibility. Therefore, a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall will be valid for portions of east-central Texas on Wednesday. Some severe thunderstorms are also possible here with the high instability, and the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather across southeastern Texas. Another area of moderate to heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered over southern Minnesota Thursday evening into early Friday where 1 to 2 inches is currently forecast. This may be enough to result in some localized flooding issues, and WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday into Thursday night to account for this. This will be the result of moisture from the south intersecting a frontal boundary paired with a mid-level shortwave disturbance moving through the region. Anomalous heat by mid-June standards will continue through mid-week across much of the interior Western U.S. as an upper level ridge governs the overall weather pattern. The most impactful heat will be across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest where afternoon highs will reach 105 to 110 degrees, and Heat Risk reaching the moderate to major category. Afternoon highs in the lower 90s are expected to reach as far north as eastern Washington on Wednesday before a gradual cool-down ensues for the end of the week. Hamrick Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php