Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 00Z Sat Jun 14 2025 ...Heavy to Excessive Rainfall likely across parts of Texas and Oklahoma over the next few days... ... The Plains and Upper Midwest will see thunderstorms that will have a flooding and severe weather threat for the next couple of days... ... General hot weather continues out West and across the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the work-week The main thing making weather headlines through the middle to end of the work week will be the widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across much of the southern Plains, with a particular focus across eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and the Ozarks region. Multiple rounds of storms with heavy rainfall will be fueled by a mid-level low forcing atmospheric ascent near the proximity of a frontal boundary in the region. There is a high likelihood of 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals across much of this region through Friday morning, with isolated 4-6 inch totals within the realm of possibility. Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) on Thursday and Friday for the areas mentioned above. Then, on Saturday there is a broad Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic as moisture streams in from the south and interacts with a front draped across the Ohio Valley. Some severe thunderstorms are also possible across the South tomorrow with ample instability and some shear. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk across Texas into the Arklatex for Thursday for locally damaging wind gusts, an isolated tornado, and perhaps some hail. Another area of moderate to heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered over southern Minnesota Thursday evening into early Friday where 1 to 2 inches is currently forecast. This may be enough to result in some localized flooding issues, and WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday into Thursday night to account for this. Friday will continue to see some isolated heavy flooding potential across the upper Great Lakes region as thunderstorms continue along a frontal boundary paired with a mid-level shortwave disturbance moving through the region. Moreover, additional disturbances ejecting across the Plains will bring a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Thursday from Colorado to southern Minnesota. Storms that do develop in the region will be capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Storms are then expected to become linear and cluster for strong wind potential. On Friday, a similar pattern will repeat as a shortwave brings storms capable of producing strong winds and hail from the Plains to the Rockies. While record high temperatures may not be in the forecast, most of the interior West will see temperatures 10-15 degrees above average for early June. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will be possible. The Desert Southwest will be seasonably hot with highs in the 100-110 range possible. As for the east coast, some warm air will creep into the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures could be around 5-10 degrees warmer than average for Thursday and Friday and approach the low 90s. D.C. is likely to see the first official 90 degree temperature of the year. The cool spot in the country will be north of a frontal boundary in the far northern Plains and Great Lakes areas. High temperatures in the 60s and even some upper 50s will be possible on Friday in the U.P. of Michigan and Wisconsin . Hamrick/Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php