Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 15 2025 - 00Z Tue Jun 17 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Central/Southern Plains on Saturday and Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Saturday and the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday/Monday... A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central High Plains will remain through Tuesday. South of and along the boundary, upper-level energy and abundant moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms from south of the Great Lakes/New England to the Gulf Coast and from Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast for the rest of Saturday. Two regions of heavy rain will be embedded in the larger mass of showers and thunderstorms. The first area will be over the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. The second area will cover parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, the upper-level energy and moisture will create showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over the Northern High Plains. Likewise, another area of upper-level energy and moisture will create showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. On Sunday, another area of upper-level energy and abundant moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms from south of the Great Lakes/New England to the Gulf Coast and from the Northern Tier States, west of the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Similarly, there will be two regions of heavy rain embedded in the larger mass of showers and thunderstorms. The first area will be over the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. The second area will be over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and a larger area of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. However, there will be a larger area of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, and severe thunderstorm wind gusts 65 knots or greater over the Northern High Plains. By Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall tapers off to a few marginal risk areas over the Mid-Atlantic, Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley, and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley. Moreover, the moisture and upper-level energy will trigger severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php