Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 19 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 21 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms to envelope much of the East today; daily rounds of severe weather are expected across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, & Great Lakes through Friday... ...Searing heat continues in the Southwest, Intermountain West, and High Plains... ...The origins of a dangerous central and eastern U.S. heat wave kicks off this weekend in the Midwest... ...Fire weather a concern for portions of the West & Rockies through Friday... Multiple rounds of severe weather are expected across the northern and eastern U.S. through the end of the week. Today, the spotlight for severe weather potential shines brightest along the East Coast with the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions most at risk. This is due to a cold front that will spark numerous showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-South to as far north as northern Maine. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3/5) for severe weather along the I-95 corridor of the Mid-Atlantic. This includes metropolitan areas such as Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, Richmond, and the New York City's New Jersey suburbs. Damaging wind gusts associated with severe storms are of greatest concern, while some severe storms could also contain tornadoes and large hail. The potential for severe weather today extends as far north as northern New England to as far south as the Carolinas. In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also a flash flood risk throughout much of these aforementioned regions. There is a Slight Risk in place for parts of the Upper Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians where recent Excessive Rainfall has made this area particularly vulnerable to flash flooding. While the severe weather threat concludes by Friday morning in the East, the North Central U.S. will contend with daily and nightly rounds of severe storms thanks to an elongated frontal boundary and an exceptionally hot/steamy air-mass. SPC has issued Slight Risks across North Dakota and the Upper Midwest today and Friday. Strong-to-severe weather will remain in the forecast on Saturday as storms envelope an area that stretches as far west as eastern Montana to as far east as Upstate New York. The other headlining weather story for not just the end of this week, but lasting well into next week as well, is the expanding heat wave that has a tight grip over the Southwest, the Rockies, and northern High Plains today. Extreme Heat Warnings are out for Las Vegas and Phoenix today and Friday while Heat Advisories have been issued for cities such as Denver, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, and El Paso. By Friday, an approaching upper-level low will cause temperatures to plummet to below normal levels from the Pacific Northwest on south along the California coast. This upper-low will force the growing heat dome east into the Heartland high temperature topping the century mark in the Central Plains. Numerous daily record highs are likely to be broken in the Central Plains, while residual above normal temperatures in the East on Thursday results in record warm daily minimum temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic. By this weekend, a strengthening upper-level ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S. will deliver the most oppressive heat of the season to date from the Central Plains and Midwest on east for just about everyone east of the Mississippi River this weekend and into next week. Extreme Heat Watches are already in place across much of the Midwest due to the likelihood of experiencing 105-110 degree heat indices this weekend. WPC is issuing Key Messages for this dangerous late June heat wave, which can be viewed at this link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php additional heat safety tips, please visit the National Weather Service's heat safety page located here: https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat. In addition to the stifling heat in the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies today and Friday, there is also a pronounced fire weather threat in these areas for the second half of the week. SPC has a pair of Critical Fire Weather Areas for portions of Nevada, western Utah, and northwest Arizona. The combination of hot conditions, gusty winds, and dry fuels support the potential for rapid fire spread in these areas. There are also Elevated Fire Weather Areas in place across much of the Great Basin and also in California's San Joaquin Valley. By Friday, the elevated risk for favorable fire weather conditions extends farther east across much of Utah, northern Arizona, western Colorado, and northwest New Mexico. Mullinax Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php