Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 20 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 22 2025 ...Storms, some severe, may produce Flash Flooding over portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Four Corners... ...Dangerous heat expands from Central to Eastern U.S. this weekend... A surface low pressure system stationed over the Northern Plains accompanied by quasi-stationary surface fronts draped across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will provide support for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Storms are expected to propagate across North Dakota this afternoon and into Minnesota tonight with MCS potential. The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over much of North Dakota and northern Minnesota today, where tornadoes, very strong winds and very large hail will be possible. A slight risk (at least 15%) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is in effect for portions of northern Minnesota/Wisconsin where multiple rounds of storms may move across the same areas this afternoon/evening. Excessive heat watches and warnings are also in effect for parts of the Upper Midwest and Northern/Central Plains where record high minimums may be reached tonight--fueling aforementioned storms. Shortwave energy rounding an upper ridge will bring additional heavy rain and severe storm potential to the Lower Great Lakes and interior Northeast on Saturday. A deep upper-level low will move into the West this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures to the region as well as renewed fire weather concerns. There is a critical risk of fires for portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners region this weekend, due to very dry and windy conditions beneath the base of the upper trough. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will amplify over the Eastern U.S. this weekend, leading to potential record temperatures and heat risk concerns next week. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php