Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 416 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 22 2025 - 00Z Tue Jun 24 2025 ..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico on Sunday, as well as Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/ Central Plains and Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Saturday and Northern/Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern High Plains on Sunday... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest on Saturday... A front extending from just north of Lake Superior/Upper Great Lakes to the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies and then into the Great Basin will have a wave of low pressure over the Northern Plains that moves northeastward to near James Bay, Canada, by Monday evening. The trailing front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains and westward into the Great Basin. Moisture pooling along the boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms from the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes. Additionally, moisture and upper-level energy will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Gulf Coast States and the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic Coast through Sunday morning. On Sunday, moisture will stream northwestward over Texas and interact with upper-level energy to produce showers and thunderstorms, creating heavy rain over parts of southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, the moisture will flow northward east of a dryline and along and ahead of the cold front over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and Central/Southern High Plains, producing showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and Central/Southern High Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two inches or greater over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Further, moisture pooling along a front over the Northeast will aid in producing strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and norther Mid-Atlantic from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Moreover, moisture and upper-level impulses will trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. On Monday, moisture will continue to flow along the dryline and front over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central Southern High Plains, producing two areas of heavy rain. The first area will cover parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains on Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. The second area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains on Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along the northern parts of the front along parts of the Upper Great Lake/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Great Lake/Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Likewise, moisture and upper-level energy will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday over parts of the Gulf Coast States and the Southeast. Meanwhile, an upper-level low will move across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern High Plains by Monday, leaving an upper-level trough over the West Coast. The energy will produce rain over the Northwest through Monday morning. Further, wet mountain snow will develop over parts of the Northern Rockies, prompting a Winter Storm Warning for parts of Glacier National Park from early Saturday morning to Sunday afternoon. At lower elevations, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the region through Sunday evening. Also, showers and thunderstorms will move into parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Elsewhere, deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100 F and relative humidity falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), which has prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest on Saturday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php