Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 351 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 23 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 25 2025 ...Extremely dangerous heat persists from Midwest to the East Coast this week... ...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather concerns across portions of the Central U.S.... A strong upper-level ridge parked over the eastern half of the country will continue to generate an extremely dangerous heat wave this week. Extreme HeatRisk impacts will expand from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic today. This level of HeatRisk is known for being rare and/or long duration with little to no overnight relief, and affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. High temperatures in the 90s to 100s and lows in the 70s to low 80s will break numerous records over the next several days. Dense urban centers like: Columbus, OH; Washington, DC; and Philadelphia, PA will experience especially significant heat impacts. Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Elsewhere, a slow moving upper trough and quasi-stationary surface fronts will produce rounds of thunderstorms across the Central U.S. over the next few days. SPC issued a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for a swath extending from northern Kansas to northern Michigan/the U.P. today followed by another slight risk over the Front Range on Tuesday. Wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats for both areas, while a tornado or two could materialize over the Front Range on Tuesday. There will also be excessive rainfall/flash flooding concerns along the front draped across the Central Plains/Upper Midwest. A slight risk (at least 15%) of excessive rainfall is in effect for parts of central Kansas to southwestern Wisconsin today followed by another one over parts of southeastern South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, northern Missouri, Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and southern Minnesota on Tuesday. Anomalous moisture over the Southern High Plains will likely interact with a surface trough/dryline and produce scattered to isolated storms over the next few days. There's a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of eastern New Mexico and western Texas where a couple inches of rain could fall. Conditions worsen while moisture anomalies increase and shift westward a bit on Tuesday. Afternoon/evening storms could produce several inches of rain over much of New Mexico and into southern Colorado. A moderate risk (at least 40%) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding over parts of central New Mexico, where some overlap in heavy rainfall from the previous day may occur. Burn scar areas within the Sacramento Mountains are at particular risk of flash flooding. Meanwhile, temperatures remain below average in the West beneath an amplified upper trough. Temps begin to rebound on Tuesday. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php