Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 405 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Jul 02 2025 - 00Z Fri Jul 04 2025 ...There will be chances for heavy rain and areas of potential flash flooding across areas in the Southwest, the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, and most of north-central Florida over the next few days... ...Locally strong thunderstorms will be possible across the northern Plains over the next few days and across the Northeast on Thursday... ...Mid-level ridging will shift eastward towards the Plains and Midwest and bring above average temperatures to these regions... A cold front slowly sagging southeastward across the eastern seaboard will be a lifting mechanism for heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding. On Wednesday, thunderstorms are likely to reform over a boundary from the Virginia Tidewater to coastal North Carolina and potentially drop a couple of inches of rainfall. Some training of thunderstorms from today is also possible for tomorrow in the Mid-Atlantic. Ample tropical moisture across Florida associated with lower surface pressures will be squeezed out very efficiently for the days of Wednesday and Thursday due to the approach of a sagging frontal boundary serving as a source of additional atmospheric lift in addition to typical afternoon and sea-breeze thunderstorms. Some areas in the Tampa Bay region southward along the Sun Coast may see as much as 5-7 inches of rainfall from this afternoon through the day Thursday. Therefore, WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday and Thursday around the Tampa Bay region. Scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. Turn around, don't drown. Furthermore, the Southwest will see monsoonal moisture bring the threat of heavy rainfall from Arizona to the Four Corners region. A targeted Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect tomorrow for areas of Arizona into New Mexico as ample moisture and instability will allow for heavy rainfall rates over sensitive terrain and burn scars sensitive to flash flooding. A broader Marginal Risk extends for the Southwest through Thursday. In terms of severe weather, two areas of Marginal Risk are in effect across the Northern Rockies and the Midwest for Wednesday. Across the northern Rockies, the biggest weather threat will be strong, gusty winds with dry thunderstorms, as well as an elevated fire weather risk due to gusty winds over low relative humidities. A trough across the Midwest and Great Lakes region will bring potential for severe winds and the possibility of large hail. On Thursday, the Dakotas will see the potential for linear storm structures to bring strong winds. Also, a cold front entering the Northeast on Thursday will bring a renewed potential for locally strong storms. Most of the temperatures across the CONUS will be trending average to slightly below average for the start of July across the South owing to the abundance of rainfall from the Southwest to the Sunshine State. Northern areas will see heat spreading eastward from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday. Temperatures will be anywhere from 10-15 degrees warmer than average. Wednesday and Thursday will see high temperatures in the 95-100 degree range. This may approach Heat Risk in the Major Range across the Dakotas into Iowa and Minnesota by Thursday, and individuals should plenty of water and take cool breaks. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php