Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 06 2025 - 00Z Tue Jul 08 2025 ...Slow-moving thunderstorms will lead to additional heavy downpours and the threat for flash flooding over saturated grounds in central Texas... ...Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast to make landfall in the Carolinas early Sunday bringing heavy rain and flash flooding to the coastal plain... ...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the northern Plains, upper Midwest/Great Lakes followed by strong to severe thunderstorms across the northern and central High Plains... ...Heat and humidity will shift from the Great Lakes region Saturday to the South and East Coast the next couple of days, with notable population centers entering the Major Heat Risk category... Thunderstorms associated with a remnant small-scale mid-level vortex responsible for the devastating flooding in central Texas over the past couple of days continue into this afternoon with multiple ongoing Flash Flood Warnings. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) remains in effect as very anomalously high levels of Gulf moisture contribute to torrential downpours (multiple inches of rain per hour), which can lead to scattered, rapidly developing and dangerous instances of flash flooding. While storms are expected to decrease in coverage into the evening/overnight hours, some storms may redevelop by as early as Sunday morning and last into the day Sunday, with a continued risk for flash flooding mainly for areas that have already been hard hit from the prior days rainfall. Fortunately, drier weather is expected heading into Monday. Tropical Storm Chantal, located off the southeast Atlantic coast, is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall between Charleston, SC and Cape Fear, NC, early Sunday morning. However, tropical storm conditions can be expected throughout this vicinity beginning early this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Bands of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall totals of 2-4 inches, locally upwards of 6", may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) covering coastal areas through Sunday morning and further inland across the coastal plain through Monday morning. Showers will decrease into Monday but some isolated heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding are expected from the Carolina coastal plain northward into the southern Mid-Atlantic. In addition to flash flooding, life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the Atlantic coast from Florida northward to the Mid-Atlantic states over the next couple of days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected broadly across portions of the eastern and central U.S. ahead of a slow moving cold front the next couple of days. The focus through Saturday evening will be across portions of the Upper Midwest southwest to the Missouri Valley with some isolated heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding possible. The front will continue southeastward on Sunday, bringing storm chances to the Lower Great Lakes southwest through the Middle Mississippi Valley, and then into the interior Northeast southwest through the Ohio Valley Monday, with some additional heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding expected. Further west, storms are also expected in moist upslope flow along the High Plains. For Saturday evening, storms are expected across the central and especially northern High Plains with some severe weather. There is an Enhanced Risk from the Storm Prediction Center (level 3/5) for the threat of very large hail and significant damaging winds. The storm focus shifts southward into the central High Plains and adjacent central Plains Sunday and Monday, with Slight Risks both days for a continued threat of very large hail and significant damaging winds. Isolated flash flooding is possible as well. Additional storms are possible through the southern High Plains Sunday/Monday, with isolated flash flooding possible. Elsewhere, daily scattered thunderstorms are forecast along the Florida and central Gulf Coasts. The West should be mostly dry. Hot, muggy weather continues today across much of the Great Lakes ahead of the cold front, with highs into the mid-90s. These conditions are expected to spread and expand eastward to the East Coast and across the South the next couple of days, as highs climb into the low to mid-90s with high humidity levels. Most of the region is under Moderate to Major Heat Risk, including many of the major population centers, indicating a level of heat that can impact anyone without adequate access to air conditioning or hydration, especially those groups more sensitive to heat. Temperatures are also expected to climb across much the West, particularly for the interior Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin and in the Desert Southwest, after more comfortable, below average conditions to start the holiday weekend. Temperatures will remain cooler and below average Sunday across much of the northern tier of the country from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest following a cold front passage, with highs in the upper 60s to low 80s. Temperatures will be generally seasonable southward through the Plains with some lingering below average conditions into the southern Plains given precipitation and cloudiness in the region. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php