Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025 - 12Z Wed Jul 09 2025 ...More slow-moving thunderstorms will lead to another day of localized flash flooding threat in central Texas... ...Tropical Depression Chantal is forecast to track through the Mid-Atlantic states today with a period of heavy rain before brushing the southern New England coast tonight into Tuesday morning... ...A round of strong to severe thunderstorms expected to impact the northern Plains and central High Plains later today and tonight... ...Heat and humidity will affect much of the East Coast for the next couple of days as heat intensifies across the Northwest and Desert Southwest... A very moist and conditionally unstable environment continues across the flood-ravaged portion of Texas. Thunderstorms that affected portions of central to north Texas yesterday have largely tapered off through the early hours this morning. However, with a subtle low to mid-level disturbance remaining in place, scattered thunderstorms could once again develop at anytime today in this environment. It appears that the best chance will be farther south today across south-central Texas where the lower-level moisture is most abundant. The thunderstorms should become more organized and move westward possibly across the flood-ravaged portion of Texas during the day today as the storms interact with the disturbance aloft. Fueled by daytime heating, additional thunderstorms are expected to form later today in other parts of Texas and extend across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley toward interior New England. Monday night should once again see a lull in the thunderstorm activities before scattered thunderstorms pop up once again during the day on Tuesday. It appears that the best chance for these thunderstorms to develop on Tuesday will be farther north across the south-central Plains as a cold front dips a bit farther south into the central Plains. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Chantal has been tracking northeastward further inland across the Mid-Atlantic states. An area of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms remain quite active just to the northwest of the center of Chantal. Since Chantal has weakened slower and moved faster than previous forecasts, the latest thinking is that Chantal will continue to track northeast through the Mid-Atlantic states today as a tropical depression before brushing the southern New England coast tonight into Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches have already been reported in portions of the interior Mid-Atlantic. Depending on how well the thunderstorms will be sustained on the northwestern side of Chantal, additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall will raise flash flooding concerns particularly for locations just to the northwest of the track of Chantal through tonight. Across the northern Plains, a round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to march across the northern Plains from west to east and down into the central High Plains today into tonight with the ejection of an upper trough from the northern Rockies. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for these areas. Farther east, a cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms from the mid-Mississippi to the Ohio Valleys today before moving into interior New England tonight with the passage of a low pressure wave. Tuesday should see these scattered thunderstorms redeveloping farther east across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast as the slow-moving front pushes farther east. The trailing portion of the front will dip farther south into the central Plains, allowing drier and cooler air to move into the northern Plains while increasing the chance of scattered thunderstorms across the south-central Plains on Tuesday. Hot and muggy weather is expected to settle across much of the East Coast and South during the next couple of days ahead of the slow-moving front and tropical moisture from Chantal moving into the mid-Atlantic. Widespread Moderate to Major Heat Risk is in place throughout the region, including many of the regions large population centers, indicating a level of heat that can affect anyone without effective cooling or hydration, especially those groups more sensitive to heat. Progression of the cold front southward will bring some relief of the heat into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. Hotter temperatures are also expected to expand in coverage across much of the Interior West and Desert Southwest over the next couple of days, with the more oppressive heat expected across portions of the interior Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin as well as in the Desert Southwest. Excessive Heat Watches/Warnings have been issued for the Desert Southwest as highs are expected to climb into the 110s. More seasonable Summer temperatures are forecast across the Plains and Midwest the next couple of days, particularly over the southern Plains as clouds and precipitation linger in the region. Kong/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php