Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 00Z Sat Jul 12 2025 - 00Z Mon Jul 14 2025 ...Risk of flash flooding returns to the Southern Plains Saturday and Sunday for areas in New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas... ...Severe weather is likely across the Great Lakes and Southwest Texas on Saturday... ..Heat builds in the western U.S., while a cold front pushing through the Plains ushers in a brief comfortable July air mass... All eyes will be focusing over the southern Plains and New Mexico on Saturday and Sunday as a stalling frontal boundary will be a focus for heavy rainfall. WPC has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for both Saturday and Sunday from the Hill Country of Texas into Oklahoma and westward into New Mexico. There is lots of uncertainty in the evolution of the convection, but the forecast QPF has 3-4 inches in Oklahoma and 2-3 inches in a very saturated west Texas. Another area of interest to watch for potential flash flooding will be from northern Virginia to New York state as storms will fire along and ahead of a cold front moving through the area on Sunday. Plentiful moisture at the surface and the potential for training storms has prompted WPC to issue a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall as some scattered flooding is certainly possible, especially in terrain. A strong cold front for July standards will control most of the locations that may see severe weather. On Saturday, Michigan, northern Indiana, and northern Ohio are under a Slight Risk for the hazards of strong winds and marginal hail. Meanwhile, abundant instability and outflow boundaries from thunderstorms on Friday will help spark thunderstorms on Saturday that may produce large hail and strong winds from microburst potential per SPC. On Sunday, a Marginal Risk for severe weather will exist along a frontal boundary in the southern Plains and across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The risk looks to be primarily a strong wind gust or two, but the SPC does not have too much thunderstorm organization highlighted. The heat will continue to build across the western U.S. heading into the weekend as an upper-level ridge expands overhead. Most locations will be into the 90s to low 100s, and into the low 110s in the Desert Southwest. The most hazardous heat is expected across the central California Valleys into the western Great Basin by Saturday, with areas of Major Heat Risk expected, indicating a level of heat dangerous to anyone without access to adequate air conditioning or hydration. Areas of the Plains and Midwest will see below average and feel more temperate summer conditions with the cold front passage. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s across much of the northern Plains and southward into the central Plains. Temperatures will begin to warm up by Sunday. The Ohio Valley into the interior Northeast will be warm and humid on Saturday ahead of a cold front passage; some towns and cities may be in the Moderate to Major Heat Risk before cooling off by Sunday as a cold front comes in. The Southeast will have July warmth and humidity as temperatures will be feeling over 100 degrees with the Bermuda High in charge of the air mass. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php