Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 338 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Jul 21 2025 - 00Z Wed Jul 23 2025 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Valley on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains on Sunday and the Ohio Valleys on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast/New England, Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians, and Northern/Central High Plains on Sunday and parts of the Northern Plains on Monday... A quasi-stationary front extending from the Great Basin to the Northern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley remains quasi-stationary through Tuesday evening. The eastern half of the front, extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday, will move southward to the Southeast and then extend northwestward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. Moisture pooling along the front over the Ohio Valley will produce showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley through Monday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. Additionally, many streams may flood, potentially impacting larger rivers. Additionally, on Sunday, moisture just north of the front will produce showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, over parts of the Northern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Additionally, on Sunday, showers and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains, along and north of the front. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there is an increased threat of hail two inches or greater over the area. Additionally, Air Quality Alerts are in effect over northern Minnesota due to wildfires in Canada from Sunday into Monday. Furthermore, the cold front over the Northeast to the Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley will produce two areas of showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The severe thunderstorms over the Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley will have a minimal threat for hail. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies, Central/Southern High Plains, and Southwest on Sunday. Moreover, on Monday, moisture will continue to pool along the front over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, creating showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain will develop with the showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as well as the Central/Southern Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall associated with these thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as well as the Central/Southern Appalachians, from Monday into Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Additionally, on Monday, the western end of the front will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. On Monday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop south of the front, from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Gulf Coast. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop near and along the front from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. More showers and thunderstorms develop along and near the front over the Southern High Plains, Central/Southern Rockies, and Great Basin/Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop in the moisture-rich air over the Southeast to the Central Gulf Coast. On Tuesday, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop near the front over the Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Further, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over parts of the Upper Midwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Also on Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast, the Central Gulf Coast, the Central/Southern High Plains, the Central/Southern Rockies, and the Southwest. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php