Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 343 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 22 2025 - 12Z Thu Jul 24 2025 ...Oppressive heat to expand across the Central Plains, Midwest, and Deep South through mid-week; Nearly 60 million people under heat-related warnings, watches, & advisories... ...Thunderstorms to pose a flash flood threat in portions of the Southwest, Midwest, and Southeast... ...Severe storms are likely in the Northern Plains & Midwest; Unseasonably cool & comfortable conditions in the Northeast & Southwest... The "Dog Days of Summer" are in full swing for most of the eastern two-thirds of the country as a strengthening heat dome over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys gradually builds over the eastern U.S. by the second half of the week. Temperatures soaring into the upper 90s will be high enough to set some localized daily records in the Southeast for late July. In addition, overnight/morning low temperatures dropping only into the mid to upper 70s will break a greater number of warm minimum temperature records. Heat indices from the Central Plains to the Southeast will range between 100-110F each day with localized readings potentially reaching 115F. HeatRisk depicts Major to locally Extreme levels across the Deep South and Lower Mississippi Valley today, with the Major levels footprint growing in size across the Midwest through Wednesday. Extreme Heat Warnings are in place for parts of the Central Plains and lower to mid-Mississippi Valley together with Extreme Heat Watches across the Midwest, including the majority of the Chicagoland area. Meanwhile, Heat Advisories encompass much of the Deep South and northern Florida. WPC continues to carry Key Messages for this ongoing heat wave. Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat for more information on tips for how to stay cool and safe when dealing with oppressive heat. Precipitation across the continental U.S. continues to be heavily influenced by a so-called "Ring of Fire" weather pattern; an upper-level ridge pattern over the southeastern U.S. circulating a series of disturbances across the northern and southern tiers of the U.S. This ridge of high pressure is channeling rich Gulf moisture north into the Upper Midwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Farther east, high pressure over the Northeast is pushing a cold front down the East Coast with low pressure lingering over the Southeast. WPC maintains a pair of Slight Risks (threat level 2/4) for flash flooding in portions of the Upper Midwest and the Southwest. The Upper Midwest, as well as much of the northern High Plains, also feature Slight Risks for severe weather through mid-week where severe storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. In the Southeast, the aforementioned low pressure system will incorporate tropical moisture from the Atlantic Ocean to foster locally heavy rainfall from the Carolinas on south throughout much of Florida. WPC has a Slight Risk in place for portions of eastern Georgia and the coastal Carolinas today. The low pressure system is forecast to move west on Wednesday, but there remains a Marginal Risk of flash flooding that extends as far west as the central Gulf Coast by Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, regions expecting cooler than normal temperatures and a more tranquil weather pattern to start the week are the Desert Southwest and Northeast. The Northeast will witness unusually cool and comfortable temperatures for late July with some communities struggling to get above 80 degrees today. This period of cool/comfortable conditions in the Northeast will be short lived as sultry conditions return by the second half of the work-week. In contrast, much of California will continue to experience cooler than normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. Mullinax Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php