Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Jul 23 2025 - 00Z Fri Jul 25 2025 ...Widespread major heat risks to expand northward through the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday.. ...Heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather possible from the Northern-Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes... ...Heavy rains and flash flooding also possible from the Southeast, across North Florida, the Florida Panhandle into the Central Gulf Coast... A mid to upper level high centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will be expanding northeastward over the next few days, bringing a widespread heat wave from the Mississippi Valley, into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes and eventually into the East over the next few days. Major heat risks, currently centered across the Southeast into the Central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley, will be expanding northeastward through the remainder of the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and into the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday. These heat risks will then push back into the East for Friday and Saturday. There are currently over 80 million people under either an Extreme Heat Warning, Extreme Heat Watch or Heat Advisory from the Southeast, North Florida, the Florida Panhandle, the Central Gulf Coast and northward through the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley regions. These numbers will likely increase over the next few days as the heat wave expands northeastward and then eastward. While high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s across much of these areas over the next several days, there is not expected to be many record high temperatures. The best chances for any records with this heat wave will be with the morning low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday morning from the Central Gulf Coast, through the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes. In contrast to the heat across the Central to Eastern U.S....temperatures will remain below average across nearly all areas to the west of the Rockies, where mid to upper level heights will remain below average. An exception to this will be over a small portion of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin where above average temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation wise...active weather likely around the peripheries of the mid to upper level high across the Northern-Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley-Upper Lakes regions, and from the Southeast, across North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and into the Central Gulf Coastal regions. Across both region, showers and thunderstorms will be focusing along separate slow moving frontal boundaries. Showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage and intensity late this afternoon into this evening and overnight hours across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Lakes region. With moisture values much above average across these areas, localized flash flooding is possible. Flood watches are currently in effect across northeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. In addition to the heavy rain and flash flooding threat, severe weather is also possible across these regions with high winds and large hail the greatest severe weather threats, with a lesser threat of tornadoes. Additional heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather is again possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night/early Thursday from the Northern and Central Plains, northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region. Heavy rains and flooding are also possible on the southeast side of the mid to upper level high across the Southeast into North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and the Central Gulf Coast. A stationary front and a slow moving area of low pressure just to the south of this front will be the focus for heavy rains across these areas over the next two days. Tropical moisture values across these areas will pose the threat of heavy rains and localized flooding, especially in more urbanized regions. Severe weather wise, the risks are expected to be much lower than the active precip areas over the Northern-Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Lakes region, with only a marginal risk of high winds across the Southeast, primarily this afternoon into this evening. While not as widespread as the aforementioned two heavy rain areas, there is also the risk of scattered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains from eastern Arizona, across much of New Mexico, Colorado, and the Southern High Plains from West and Southwest Texas into western Kansas. Flood watches are currently in effect across large portions of New Mexico, with recent burn scar areas posing the threat of debris flows from any heavy rains that fall across them. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php