Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 25 2025 - 12Z Sun Jul 27 2025 ...Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather probable from the Central Plains and Midwest to the Northeast... ...Heavy rain possible along much of the Gulf Coast through Saturday... ...Dangerous heatwave develops across Southeast this weekend... A slow moving surface front beneath a quick moving shortwave impulse will produce thunderstorm activity from the Central Plains to the Northeast, within a moisture rich environment today. Storms occurring over relatively saturated soils may pose a flash flooding threat, which is why a slight risk (at least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall is in effect for portions of eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, southern Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. A wave of surface low pressure and attendant cold front moving through the Northeast today may destabilize the atmosphere enough to produce severe thunderstorms across the Philadelphia to Boston section of the 1-95 corridor, where a slight risk (level 2/5) was issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threats from any storms that impact the region early this evening. The flash flooding threat diminishes by Saturday as the surface front lifts north into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where soils are drier and atmospheric conditions are less amenable to excessive rainfall. Today will be the last day of widespread heavy rainfall across the Gulf Coast. Troughing along the coast has offered a lifting mechanism for storm development/organization over the last few days, but should wind down as an upper ridge in the vicinity strengthens. 1-3 additional inches of rain are anticipated from the Florida panhandle to the central Texas coast by Sunday morning. Fortunately, the threat of flash flooding remains marginal due to the relatively low rain rates, resilient soils and efficient runoff methods. Unusual heat and humidity remain in place from the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys through early next week, while building across the Southeast and Mid-South this weekend. Heat will be most persistent and dangerous across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. There is high confidence that heat will reach levels that would affect anyone without sufficient cooling and/or adequate hydration, particularly across the Southeast. This includes high temperatures in the upper-90s to near 100 degrees, with heat indices potentially exceeding 110-115 degrees. This will be a long duration heat wave, with little to no overnight relief and high humidity levels, leading to an increased danger. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php