Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 404 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 00Z Sat Jul 26 2025 - 00Z Mon Jul 28 2025 ...Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather possible from the Central Plains and Midwest to the Northeast... ...Heavy rain possible along the Gulf Coast through Saturday... ...Dangerous heatwave develops across Southeast this weekend... A slow-moving frontal boundary stretching from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will remain a focus for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Storms developing this evening and continuing overnightâ€from eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska through the mid-Mississippi Valleyâ€are expected to produce heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is maintaining a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall across northeastern Kansas, far southeastern Nebraska, and northwestern Missouri, where numerous flash flooding events are likely. A broader Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) extends eastward into the lower Ohio Valley and southwestward to the Kansas-Oklahoma border. In addition to heavy rain, damaging winds and an isolated tornado are possible in eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening. Farther east, the front will continue pushing southward tonight across the Northeast into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Although the risk of flash flooding is lower in this area, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is highlighting the potential for damaging windsâ€particularly along the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Bostonâ€as storms move southeast with the front. By Saturday into early Sunday, the front is expected to slowly drift northward over the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the southern Great Lakes, while stalling over the upper Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. With a supportive mid-level disturbance, the risk for locally heavy rain and flash flooding will persistâ€especially in the upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. This threat extends into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Sunday. A trough of low pressure along the central and western Gulf Coast will trigger showers and storms across the region into interior portions of eastern and southern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, with heavy rainfall possibleâ€especially near the coast over the next 24 hours. In the West, an upper-level system will enhance the chance of showers and thunderstorms from the northern Sierra into the Great Basin into the weekend. Some storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash floodingâ€particularly in complex terrain and areas recently affected by wildfires. A few storms may also become strong to severe, bringing damaging winds and large hail. A series of upper-level disturbances and increasing moisture will bring a rising threat of thunderstorms to the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Sunday. Some storms may be strong to severe, with risks including damaging winds, large hail, and heavy to excessive rainfall. Extreme heat will intensify across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley this weekend. High temperatures, elevated humidity, and minimal overnight cooling will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses. Extreme HeatRisk levels are forecast for several metro areasâ€including Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, and Greenville-Spartanburgâ€starting this weekend and lasting into next week Pereira Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php